Recent developments in global health surveillance support the market's strong "No" consensus on a new 2026 pandemic, with the dominant factor being the contained trajectory of the Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Declared a public health emergency of international concern in May by the WHO, the event has produced over 7,000 confirmed cases and 3,500 deaths across seven provinces as of mid-September, with limited spillover into Uganda and isolated detections elsewhere, but no sustained community transmission beyond Africa. Official assessments from WHO and CDC highlight declining transmission in key zones like Ituri alongside ongoing challenges in North Kivu, consistent with historical Ebola patterns rather than pandemic-scale spread. Parallel events such as the moderate-risk multi-country mpox outbreak and sporadic avian influenza cases further underscore localized rather than global dynamics. A realistic challenge could emerge from accelerated international seeding of Ebola or a novel pathogen achieving efficient human-to-human transmission before containment measures scale.