**Federal investigations into former Rep. Eric Swalwell remain active but have produced no charges as of mid-September 2026.** The FBI executed search warrants in mid-August, seizing electronic devices at San Francisco airport and his Washington home as part of a civil rights probe tied to sexual misconduct allegations from multiple women. Separate inquiries by the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office and Los Angeles authorities have continued since April, when Swalwell resigned from Congress amid the accusations. No indictments or formal charging decisions have been announced in the federal or state cases, and device analysis plus standard prosecutorial review typically require more time than the remaining days before September 30. Traders therefore assign high probability to “No,” reflecting the procedural pace of such matters and the lack of any public signals pointing to imminent action within the narrow window.