Redistricting under California's Proposition 50 shifted CA-06 into Democratic-leaning territory with a D+5 partisan voting index, creating structural advantages for the party in the November 3 general election. Incumbent Kevin Kiley, running as no party preference after switching from Republican, advanced from the June primary alongside Democrat Richard Pan under the top-two system, but nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or likely Democratic. Recent polling shows Pan holding a modest edge, aligning with the district's voter composition and historical margins. Trader consensus at over 94% for a Democratic winner reflects these fundamentals, though Kiley's incumbency and name recognition could narrow the gap if turnout favors independents or Republicans in suburban areas like Placer County. Late developments such as major endorsements or shifts in national midterm dynamics remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome before Election Day.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateCA-06 House Election Winner
CA-06 House Election Winner
$50,192 Vol.
$50,192 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
3%
$50,192 Vol.
$50,192 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$25,661 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$24,531 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California's Proposition 50 shifted CA-06 into Democratic-leaning territory with a D+5 partisan voting index, creating structural advantages for the party in the November 3 general election. Incumbent Kevin Kiley, running as no party preference after switching from Republican, advanced from the June primary alongside Democrat Richard Pan under the top-two system, but nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or likely Democratic. Recent polling shows Pan holding a modest edge, aligning with the district's voter composition and historical margins. Trader consensus at over 94% for a Democratic winner reflects these fundamentals, though Kiley's incumbency and name recognition could narrow the gap if turnout favors independents or Republicans in suburban areas like Placer County. Late developments such as major endorsements or shifts in national midterm dynamics remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$50,192Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California's Proposition 50 shifted CA-06 into Democratic-leaning territory with a D+5 partisan voting index, creating structural advantages for the party in the November 3 general election. Incumbent Kevin Kiley, running as no party preference after switching from Republican, advanced from the June primary alongside Democrat Richard Pan under the top-two system, but nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or likely Democratic. Recent polling shows Pan holding a modest edge, aligning with the district's voter composition and historical margins. Trader consensus at over 94% for a Democratic winner reflects these fundamentals, though Kiley's incumbency and name recognition could narrow the gap if turnout favors independents or Republicans in suburban areas like Placer County. Late developments such as major endorsements or shifts in national midterm dynamics remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$50,192Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under California's Proposition 50 shifted CA-06 into Democratic-leaning territory with a D+5 partisan voting index, creating structural advantages for the party in the November 3 general election. Incumbent Kevin Kiley, running as no party preference after switching from Republican, advanced from the June primary alongside Democrat Richard Pan under the top-two system, but nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or likely Democratic. Recent polling shows Pan holding a modest edge, aligning with the district's voter composition and historical margins. Trader consensus at over 94% for a Democratic winner reflects these fundamentals, though Kiley's incumbency and name recognition could narrow the gap if turnout favors independents or Republicans in suburban areas like Placer County. Late developments such as major endorsements or shifts in national midterm dynamics remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome before Election Day.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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