Recent OpenAI Codex incidents, including a September 25 outage that disrupted the API, CLI, VS Code extension, and web interface for nearly an hour amid elevated errors, plus degraded performance on October 7, have shaped trader views. Persistent October user reports of server_overloaded messages, stream disconnects during long-running tasks, and capacity limits on GPT-6 models despite available quota point to ongoing infrastructure strain from high adoption and model updates. These reliability challenges in the AI coding platform, combined with historical patterns of load-related issues after launches, underpin the 77.5% implied probability of another outage before year-end.