Paramount Skydance holds a commanding lead in the Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition market after prevailing in the 2025-2026 bidding war with an all-cash $31-per-share offer valued at roughly $110 billion enterprise value, which WBD’s board deemed superior to Netflix’s prior studio-and-streaming agreement. Shareholders approved the deal in April 2026, and the U.S. Department of Justice cleared it in June, leaving Paramount as the only active bidder with a signed merger agreement. Comcast and Netflix exited earlier and show negligible odds. The 17% probability assigned to no closing by June 30, 2027, reflects ongoing antitrust litigation filed by a coalition of state attorneys general and the Writers Guild of America in July 2026, which has paused the transaction and pushed any trial into 2027. Remaining regulatory reviews and potential remedies continue to influence closing timelines.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วParamount agrees to delay Warner Bros. acquisition closing until June 2027 amid ongoing lawsuits
Paramount Skydance agreed to postpone the closing of its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery until June 2027 or until legal challenges are resolved, extending the timeline and increasing costs due to ticking fees.
Federal judge sets March 2027 trial to decide Paramount-Warner Bros. merger fate
A federal judge scheduled a trial for March 2, 2027, to determine whether Paramount Skydance's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery can proceed, extending uncertainty and supporting the market's view of a delayed closing or no acquisition by June 2027.
Paramount remains favored to close Warner Bros. acquisition despite legal challenges
Paramount dips to 69%3%
Despite ongoing legal challenges and regulatory scrutiny, Paramount Skydance remains the favored acquirer of Warner Bros., with market prices reflecting a high probability of deal closure by mid-2027. Netflix and Comcast bids have dropped to zero, and the 'None by June 30, 2027' option has decreased in likelihood.
Paramount officially delays Warner Bros. acquisition closing to June 2027
Paramount drops to 65%8%
Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery filed court documents confirming the merger will not close until after legal proceedings conclude or by June 1, 2027, extending uncertainty but solidifying Paramount's lead as acquirer.
Federal judge issues temporary restraining order halting Paramount-Warner Bros. merger
Following the lawsuit by state attorneys general, a federal judge issued a temporary restraining order preventing the Paramount-Warner Bros. acquisition from closing, further delaying the merger and increasing uncertainty about its completion date.
Paramount files court papers confirming merger delay to June 2027
Paramount filed court documents confirming the delay of the Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition until June 2027 or until legal challenges are resolved, reflecting ongoing regulatory and legal hurdles that prevent closing the deal sooner.
Paramount files court papers to delay Warner Bros. merger until June 2027 or antitrust ruling
Paramount officially filed court documents agreeing to delay the Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition until June 2027 or until a ruling on the antitrust claims, reflecting ongoing legal obstacles and market uncertainty about the deal's completion.
Federal judge issues temporary restraining order delaying Paramount-Warner Bros. merger
Paramount plunges to 29%52%
Following the lawsuit, a federal judge issued a temporary restraining order preventing the Paramount acquisition from closing immediately, further postponing the deal and impacting market expectations.
Paramount agrees to delay Warner Bros. acquisition until June 2027 amid lawsuits
Paramount Skydance agreed to postpone the closing of its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery until June 2027 or until court rulings resolve the lawsuits. This delay increased the market's probability of no acquisition by the original deadline and imposed financial penalties on Paramount.
Paramount delays closing Warner buyout amid legal challenges from states
Paramount drops to 74%11%
Paramount Skydance prevailed in its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, but the closing was delayed due to lawsuits from 12 states seeking to block the acquisition over competition concerns. A federal judge issued a temporary restraining order, creating uncertainty around the final closing date.
Federal judge denies preliminary injunction to block Paramount-Warner Bros. merger
The federal court denied a request for a preliminary injunction to block the Paramount Skydance acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, allowing the merger process to proceed despite ongoing legal challenges.
Federal judge issues temporary restraining order blocking Paramount-Warner Bros. merger
None by June 30, 2027 jumps to 25%13%
Following lawsuits by 12 states challenging the merger on antitrust grounds, a federal judge issued a temporary restraining order preventing the Paramount acquisition from closing, causing uncertainty and delay in the deal's completion.
Paramount delays Warner Bros. Discovery takeover amid legal challenges
Paramount announced a delay in closing its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery due to ongoing lawsuits from state attorneys general and the Writers Guild of America, pushing the closing potentially into 2027 and extending market uncertainty.
Legal challenges delay Paramount's Warner Bros. acquisition closing
Paramount drops to 74%11%
Attorneys general from 12 states sued to block Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, citing antitrust concerns. A federal judge issued a temporary restraining order, delaying the deal's closing and causing volatility in Paramount's market price.
Paramount announces merger delay due to lawsuits, faces costly fees
Paramount plunges to 61%24%
Paramount announced the acquisition delay due to ongoing lawsuits, which will incur daily fees payable to Warner Bros. shareholders, increasing the financial burden while the deal remains unresolved.
Paramount Skydance agrees to delay Warner Bros. acquisition until June 1, 2027
None by June 30, 2027 jumps to 31%10%
Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery agreed to pause the merger until June 1, 2027, or until five days after a court ruling on antitrust lawsuits, extending the timeline and increasing the market's probability of no acquisition by the original deadline.
Paramount delays closing Warner Bros. acquisition amid legal challenges
Paramount delayed the closing of its Warner Bros. acquisition while a judge considered a lawsuit from 12 states challenging the merger on antitrust grounds.
Paramount agrees to delay Warner Bros. merger until June 2027 amid lawsuits
Paramount rises to 73%4%
Paramount agreed to postpone closing the acquisition until June 2027 or until court rulings resolve the lawsuits. The delay triggers a ticking fee and extends uncertainty, reflected in market price fluctuations and a slight increase in the probability of no acquisition by the deadline.
Federal court orders Paramount-Warner Bros. merger pause pending lawsuit outcome
A federal court ordered that the Paramount Warner Bros. merger remain on hold until June 1, 2027, or five days after a ruling on antitrust lawsuits, preventing any integration steps and delaying the acquisition closing further.
Paramount announces delay in Warner Bros. Discovery takeover due to lawsuits
Paramount drops to 72%13%
Paramount announced that its takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery would be delayed potentially into 2027 due to pending lawsuits by state attorneys general and the Writers Guild of America, complicating the merger timeline and increasing costs for Paramount.
Attorney General Letitia James and coalition secure months-long halt to Paramount’s Warner Bros. acquisition
Paramount plunges to 69%17%
A coalition of attorneys general led by Letitia James obtained a legal filing to delay Paramount’s acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery until June 2027 or earlier pending court rulings, citing antitrust concerns and competition issues.
Paramount agrees to pause Warner Bros. acquisition until court ruling or June 2027
Paramount Skydance agreed to delay closing its $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery until a court ruling on state challenges or June 1, 2027, incurring potential daily fees and extending uncertainty.
European Union grants antitrust approval for Paramount’s Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition
Paramount rises to 86%4%
The European Commission approved Paramount’s $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery after assessing competition concerns and imposing conditions, advancing the deal toward completion.
European Commission approves Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
The European Commission formally cleared Paramount Skydance's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, marking a significant milestone toward completing the transaction in line with the publicly stated timeline.
European Commission approves Paramount-Warner Bros. merger with conditions
Paramount drops to 69%5%
The European Commission approved the merger on condition that Paramount divests from a joint venture with Universal, marking a key regulatory milestone despite ongoing U.S. legal challenges.
European Commission and other regulators approve Paramount’s Warner Bros. acquisition
Paramount drops to 72%12%
Paramount secured regulatory approvals from the European Commission and other international regulators, clearing major hurdles for the acquisition despite ongoing legal challenges in the U.S., supporting the likelihood of deal closure.
European Commission formally clears Paramount’s acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
The European Commission approved the acquisition, marking a major regulatory milestone and reinforcing the likelihood of Paramount closing the deal despite ongoing legal challenges in the U.S.
European Union approves Paramount-Warner Bros. merger with conditions
The European Union granted regulatory approval for the Paramount acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, clearing a major hurdle and supporting the likelihood of Paramount closing the deal despite ongoing legal challenges.
Federal judge orders pause on Paramount-Warner Bros. merger amid state lawsuits
Paramount drops to 74%7%
A federal judge ordered a temporary halt to the Paramount-Warner Bros. merger to allow states challenging the deal more time, causing delays and uncertainty in the closing timeline.
Temporary restraining order halts Paramount-Warner Bros. merger amid antitrust lawsuit
A coalition of state attorneys general filed a lawsuit to block Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery on antitrust grounds. A federal judge issued a 14-day temporary restraining order, pausing the acquisition and causing uncertainty about the deal's completion before the June 2027 deadline.
Paramount agrees to delay Warner Bros. acquisition until June 1, 2027 amid antitrust lawsuits
Paramount plunges to 66%20%
Paramount agreed not to close its $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery until June 1, 2027, or until state and WGA lawsuits are resolved, delaying the deal and increasing potential costs due to ticking fees.
Federal judge issues temporary restraining order halting Paramount-Warner Bros. merger
A U.S. District Judge granted a temporary restraining order pausing the Paramount-Warner Bros. acquisition due to antitrust lawsuit concerns, causing further delay and uncertainty about the deal closing by the deadline.
Temporary restraining order freezes Paramount-Warner Bros. merger
None by June 30, 2027 jumps to 21%10%
A federal judge granted a temporary restraining order requested by a coalition of 12 state attorneys general to freeze the merger, halting progress and increasing the risk that the deal might not close by the original deadline.
Federal judge temporarily halts Paramount-Warner Bros. merger amid antitrust lawsuit
Paramount plunges to 61%26%
A federal judge issued a temporary restraining order stopping Paramount from completing its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery due to an antitrust lawsuit filed by a coalition of state attorneys general, causing uncertainty and a market pause.
Attorneys general sue to block Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount drops to 73%14%
Attorneys general from 12 states filed a lawsuit to block the merger, citing concerns over reduced competition in film distribution and streaming. This introduced regulatory uncertainty but did not immediately derail the acquisition.
Federal judge denies preliminary injunction to block Paramount-Warner Bros. merger
A federal judge denied a preliminary injunction sought by consumers to block the merger, allowing Paramount to proceed toward closing despite ongoing legal challenges. This decision supported Paramount's position and stabilized its market probability.
Federal judge issues temporary restraining order delaying Paramount-Warner Bros. merger
A federal judge issued a 14-day temporary restraining order preventing the closing of the Paramount Skydance acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, responding to the lawsuit filed by state attorneys general.
Attorneys general sue to block Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 72%15%
Attorneys general from 12 states filed a lawsuit to block Paramount's acquisition, citing concerns over reduced competition in film distribution and streaming. A federal judge issued a temporary restraining order, delaying the deal's closure but Paramount vowed to defend the merger vigorously.
State attorneys general file lawsuit to block Paramount-Warner Bros. merger
Paramount drops to 72%13%
A coalition of 12 state attorneys general sued to block the merger, alleging it would reduce competition in film distribution and streaming. Paramount called the challenge weak and procompetitive, but the legal battle delayed closing and introduced uncertainty.
Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition remains on track amid shareholder and regulatory processes
Paramount dips to 82%4%
Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery is progressing toward completion following DOJ approval and shareholder votes, despite ongoing opposition and legal challenges. Market prices reflect Paramount as the likely acquirer, with Netflix and Comcast probabilities at zero.
Attorneys general from 12 states sue to block Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount drops to 73%12%
A coalition of state attorneys general filed a lawsuit to block the Paramount acquisition, citing concerns over reduced competition in film distribution and streaming. This legal challenge introduced regulatory uncertainty but did not ultimately prevent the deal's progress.
Writers Guild of America files lawsuit to block Paramount-WBD acquisition
Paramount drops to 74%10%
The Writers Guild of America filed a lawsuit opposing the Paramount Skydance acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, citing concerns about reduced competition and fewer movies in theaters. This legal challenge introduced uncertainty but did not significantly derail the market's confidence in Paramount's eventual acquisition.
State attorneys general file antitrust lawsuit to block Paramount-Warner Bros. merger
Attorneys general from 12 states filed a lawsuit seeking to block the $110 billion Paramount acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, citing antitrust concerns, which delayed the closing and increased uncertainty in the market.
Writers Guild of America files lawsuit to block Paramount-Warner Bros. acquisition
None by June 30, 2027 jumps to 24%13%
The Writers Guild of America filed a lawsuit to block the proposed Paramount acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, adding to state attorneys general challenges and causing regulatory uncertainty that delayed the deal closing and increased the probability of 'None by June 30, 2027'.
Attorneys general from 12 states file lawsuit to block Paramount-Warner Bros. acquisition
Paramount drops to 68%14%
In July 2026, attorneys general from 12 states filed a lawsuit seeking to block the Paramount acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, citing concerns over reduced competition in film distribution, cable TV, and streaming. This legal challenge caused a temporary restraining order and delayed the closing, impacting market prices.
12 state attorneys general sue to block Paramount-Warner Bros. merger on antitrust grounds
A coalition of 12 state attorneys general filed a lawsuit to block the Paramount Skydance acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, citing antitrust concerns. This legal challenge delayed the closing of the deal and introduced uncertainty, reducing the market's confidence in a timely acquisition.
U.S. District Judge temporarily blocks Paramount from finalizing Warner Bros. acquisition
None by June 30, 2027 drops to 73%12%
A federal judge issued a temporary restraining order halting Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery amid antitrust concerns raised by state attorneys general, causing uncertainty and a price drop for Paramount's acquisition probability.
Twelve state attorneys general sue to block Paramount's Warner Bros. acquisition on antitrust grounds
Paramount plunges to 69%16%
A coalition of 12 state attorneys general filed a lawsuit to block the Paramount-Warner Bros. merger, citing concerns over reduced competition and job losses. This legal challenge delayed the closing and introduced uncertainty, causing the market to price in a delay and some risk of no acquisition by June 2027.
12 state attorneys general sue to block Paramount's Warner Bros. acquisition on antitrust grounds
Paramount plunges to 29%52%
A coalition of state attorneys general filed a lawsuit to block the Paramount-Warner Bros. merger, citing concerns over reduced competition, which delayed the closing of the acquisition and introduced legal uncertainty.
Twelve states file antitrust lawsuit to block Paramount's Warner Bros. acquisition
A coalition of 12 state attorneys general filed a lawsuit challenging the Paramount-Warner Bros. merger on antitrust grounds, causing legal delays and pushing the closing date back to June 2027, impacting market expectations for timely closure.
Paramount Skydance offers to delay Warner Bros. merger amid legal challenges
None by June 30, 2027 rises to 14%3%
Paramount's antitrust attorney informed a judge that the company would voluntarily delay its $111 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery until at least mid-August due to a legal challenge by 12 state attorneys general, signaling increased uncertainty.
12 state attorneys general file antitrust lawsuit to block Paramount-Warner Bros. merger
Paramount plunges to 70%17%
A coalition of 12 state attorneys general sued to block the Paramount Skydance acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery on antitrust grounds, causing a federal judge to issue a temporary restraining order and delaying the deal closing.
Twelve U.S. states file antitrust lawsuit to block Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros.
Paramount drops to 80%5%
A coalition of 12 state attorneys general filed a lawsuit challenging the Paramount-Warner Bros. merger on antitrust grounds, causing legal delays and uncertainty about the deal's completion timeline.
Group of state attorneys general files lawsuit to block Paramount's Warner Bros. acquisition
Paramount drops to 74%13%
A coalition of state attorneys general filed a federal lawsuit seeking to block Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, citing antitrust concerns about reduced competition and potential harm to consumers and the industry.
Twelve state attorneys general sue to block Paramount's Warner Bros. acquisition on antitrust grounds
None by June 30, 2027 surges to 32%22%
A coalition of 12 state attorneys general filed a lawsuit to block Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros., citing antitrust concerns, causing a delay in the deal and pushing the closing date to June 2027.
Attorneys general from 12 states sue to block Paramount’s acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
A coalition of 12 U.S. state attorneys general filed a lawsuit to block the Paramount Skydance acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, citing concerns over reduced competition in film distribution, cable TV, and streaming.
Twelve state attorneys general file antitrust lawsuit to block Paramount's Warner Bros. acquisition
Paramount plunges to 70%15%
A coalition of 12 state attorneys general sued to block Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery on antitrust grounds, leading to a temporary restraining order and delaying the deal closing until at least June 2027.
12 states file antitrust lawsuit to block Paramount’s Warner Bros. acquisition
Paramount drops to 74%12%
A coalition of 12 state attorneys general sued to block Paramount's acquisition, citing concerns over reduced competition in film distribution and streaming. This legal challenge caused uncertainty and delayed the closing, impacting market prices for Paramount.
State attorneys general file antitrust lawsuit to block Paramount-Warner Bros. merger
A coalition of 12 US state attorneys general filed a lawsuit challenging the Paramount acquisition on antitrust grounds, leading to a temporary restraining order and delaying the closing of the deal, impacting market confidence.
State attorneys general finalize antitrust lawsuit challenging Paramount-Warner Bros. merger
Paramount plunges to 72%15%
Several state attorneys general finalized an antitrust lawsuit to block Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros., citing concerns about reduced competition. This legal challenge delayed the closing and introduced uncertainty, causing some price volatility in the market.
Group of state attorneys sue to block Paramount's Warner Bros. acquisition
Paramount dips to 84%3%
A coalition of state attorneys filed a lawsuit in California federal court to prevent Paramount from acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery, citing antitrust concerns about reduced competition and higher prices. This introduced legal uncertainty to the deal's completion.
Paramount submits concessions to European Commission for Warner Bros. merger review
Paramount rises to 86%1%
Paramount formally offered concessions to the European Commission as part of the ongoing regulatory review of its $111 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery. This step is critical to securing EU approval and advancing the merger toward completion.
Paramount offers remedies to address EU competition concerns for Warner Bros. acquisition
Paramount rises to 86%2%
Paramount proposed concessions to the European Commission to alleviate antitrust concerns, helping secure regulatory approvals necessary for closing the deal, supporting the sustained high market price for Paramount.
UK government signals likely intervention in Paramount's Warner Bros. Discovery takeover
Paramount dips to 81%2%
The UK Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy announced she is minded to intervene in the $110 billion Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery merger on public interest grounds, citing concerns about media plurality. This potential intervention introduces regulatory uncertainty and could delay the deal's completion in the UK market.
European Union clears Paramount-Warner Bros. merger with conditions
The European Union completed its phase-1 antitrust review and gave conditional approval to the Paramount-Warner Bros. merger, removing a major regulatory hurdle and supporting the likelihood of Paramount closing the acquisition.
European Union expected to approve Paramount-Warner Bros. deal by early July
Paramount rises to 83%2%
EU regulators indicated they would approve the Paramount-WBD deal by July 7, 2026, signaling smooth regulatory progress in Europe and supporting market optimism for a timely closing.
Paramount's acquisition chances peak amid regulatory and political advantages
Paramount jumps to 91%7%
Paramount's probability of acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery peaked at 91% on June 28, 2026, driven by its strong financial backing, regulatory advantages, and political support from figures like Donald Trump, who favored Paramount over Comcast.
U.S. Department of Justice clears Paramount Skydance’s $110 billion Warner Bros. acquisition
Paramount rises to 85%2%
The DOJ approved the acquisition without objections, removing a major regulatory hurdle and boosting Paramount's market confidence ahead of final closing.
Paramount faces antitrust lawsuit challenging Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition
Paramount dips to 82%3%
Paramount Skydance was served with an antitrust lawsuit alleging the acquisition would reduce competition and harm consumers, introducing legal risks and potential delays to the merger process.
Paramount Skydance acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery expected to close in Q3 2026
Paramount jumps to 81%5%
Following Netflix’s withdrawal and regulatory approvals, Paramount Skydance’s acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery is on track to close in the third quarter of 2026, effectively ending the bidding war and confirming Paramount as the acquirer.
U.S. Department of Justice and FCC clear Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount rises to 82%1%
The U.S. Department of Justice and Federal Communications Commission approved Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, removing the final regulatory obstacles and paving the way for the deal to close in Q3 2026. This regulatory clearance solidified Paramount's position as the acquirer.
Regulators clear Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
The U.S. Department of Justice and Federal Communications Commission approved Paramount's acquisition, removing final regulatory obstacles for the $110 billion merger.
U.S. Department of Justice approves Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
The U.S. Department of Justice granted approval for Paramount Skydance's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, allowing the $110 billion deal to proceed. This regulatory clearance was a critical step toward finalizing the acquisition and confirmed Paramount as the acquirer.
US Department of Justice approves Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery merger
The US DOJ cleared Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery after an eight-month investigation, removing the final major regulatory hurdle and paving the way for the deal to close in Q3 2026.
U.S. Department of Justice clears Paramount’s $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
The DOJ approved Paramount Skydance’s acquisition without requiring remedies, clearing a major regulatory hurdle and paving the way for deal closure.
US Department of Justice clears Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
The DOJ completed an eight-month antitrust review and approved the Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery merger without conditions, removing the final regulatory obstacle and paving the way for closing the $110 billion deal.
U.S. Department of Justice clears Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount rises to 83%2%
The DOJ approved Paramount's proposed acquisition, removing a major regulatory hurdle and boosting market confidence in Paramount's successful takeover. This approval was a significant step toward deal completion despite ongoing legal challenges.
Warner Bros. Discovery shares trade below deal price after DOJ approval amid remaining risks
Despite DOJ approval, WBD shares traded below the $31 deal price reflecting investor caution about remaining state-level legal challenges and international regulatory reviews, indicating some execution risk remains.
Paramount’s $110 billion Warner Bros. acquisition cleared by DOJ
Paramount jumps to 87%6%
The U.S. Department of Justice approved Paramount’s $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros., marking a major milestone despite ongoing legal challenges from some states, boosting market confidence in Paramount’s closing chances.
Comcast withdraws bid for Warner Bros. Discovery after Paramount win
Comcast announced it had dropped its bid after Paramount’s deal cleared regulatory hurdles, pushing the Comcast probability down to virtually zero.
U.S. Department of Justice approves Paramount Skydance's $111 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount drops to 77%8%
The DOJ cleared Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery without requiring divestments, removing a major regulatory hurdle and boosting market confidence in Paramount’s successful closing.
Paramount's acquisition probability peaks above 90% amid Netflix and Comcast exit
Paramount jumps to 91%6%
By mid-June 2026, market prices showed Paramount's acquisition probability peaking at 91%, while Netflix and Comcast probabilities dropped to zero. This reflected Paramount's dominant position in the bidding process and the market's expectation that Paramount will close the acquisition by the June 30, 2027 deadline.
US Justice Department approves Paramount's $111 billion Warner Bros. merger
The US Justice Department approved the Paramount-Warner Bros. merger, clearing a major regulatory hurdle and paving the way for the deal to close, reinforcing Paramount's position as the acquirer.
U.S. Justice Department approves Paramount’s acquisition of Warner Bros.
Paramount jumps to 84%5%
The U.S. Department of Justice gave its consent for Paramount's $111 billion merger with Warner Bros. Discovery, clearing a major regulatory hurdle and boosting market confidence in Paramount's eventual acquisition.
Justice Department approves Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
The U.S. Justice Department closed its antitrust investigation and approved Paramount Skydance's $111 billion merger with Warner Bros. Discovery, clearing a major regulatory hurdle for the deal's completion.
Department of Justice Approves Paramount-WBD Merger After Eight-Month Review
Paramount jumps to 83%6%
The DOJ's Antitrust Division cleared the $111 billion transaction, concluding it does not pose a threat to competition in streaming, linear TV, or theatrical markets.
DOJ antitrust division approves Paramount‑Warner Bros. Discovery merger
The U.S. Department of Justice announced antitrust approval of the Paramount‑Warner Bros. Discovery merger, removing the final regulatory hurdle and cementing Paramount’s lead in the market.
DOJ clears Paramount’s acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount jumps to 85%8%
The DOJ announced it would not challenge the Paramount‑Warner Bros. deal, clearing the biggest antitrust obstacle. The news lifted Paramount’s probability further and gave a modest bump to the “None” outcome as the window for delays narrowed.
U.S. Department of Justice approves Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount jumps to 81%7%
The DOJ approved Paramount's $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery after an eight-month investigation, removing a major regulatory hurdle and significantly boosting Paramount's acquisition chances.
US Department of Justice approves Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros.
Paramount jumps to 81%7%
The DOJ approved Paramount's $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, removing a major regulatory hurdle and significantly increasing the likelihood of Paramount closing the deal by mid-2026.
US Department of Justice signals likely approval of Paramount-Warner Bros. merger
US antitrust regulators indicated a positive stance toward approving Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros., reducing regulatory uncertainty and supporting the completion of the deal.
US Department of Justice clears Paramount’s acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
The US DOJ concluded its antitrust investigation, determining that Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery is unlikely to harm competition, removing a major regulatory hurdle and increasing the likelihood of deal closure.
U.S. Justice Department clears Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
The U.S. Department of Justice's Antitrust Division approved Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery without requiring divestitures or concessions, removing a major regulatory hurdle and boosting Paramount's acquisition prospects.
UK Competition and Markets Authority begins phase 3 review of Paramount-WBD merger
Paramount drops to 74%7%
The CMA's phase 3 due diligence review intensified regulatory scrutiny, creating uncertainty about the deal's approval and impacting market confidence in Paramount's acquisition closing on time.
California and other states prepare lawsuit to block Paramount-Warner Bros. deal
California Attorney General and other states announced plans to sue to block Paramount’s acquisition of Warner Bros., introducing legal uncertainty and potential delays to the closing process.
Paramount Files Motion to Dismiss Subscriber Antitrust Lawsuit
Paramount drops to 74%10%
Paramount asked a federal court to toss the antitrust lawsuit, calling it a clumsy attempt to politicize corporate transactions.
European Union and Austrian authorities expected to approve Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery deal
The European Union and Austrian Federal Competition Authority indicated expected approval of the Paramount acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, signaling regulatory clearance in key jurisdictions and advancing the deal toward completion.
Paramount seeks EU approval for Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition amid ongoing regulatory scrutiny
Paramount rises to 86%3%
Paramount formally sought European Union approval for the acquisition, facing ongoing regulatory scrutiny but progressing toward closing the deal despite challenges.
EU extends antitrust review of Paramount’s bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount drops to 71%13%
The EU signaled it would extend its review of the Paramount‑Warner transaction, causing the “Paramount” price to drop again to the low‑70s and the “None” price to edge upward.
European Union expected to approve Paramount-Warner Bros. deal by July 7, 2026
Paramount rises to 83%4%
The EU's anticipated approval of the Paramount acquisition deal reduced regulatory uncertainty, supporting the market's confidence in Paramount closing the acquisition within 2026.
Paramount-WBD deal may add up to $49 billion in debt, raising concerns
Paramount dips to 83%4%
Reports emerged that the Paramount acquisition could add significant debt, raising financial and regulatory concerns that contributed to market volatility and a slight decline in Paramount's price.
Paramount secures bondholder approval facilitating Warner Bros. acquisition
Paramount rises to 82%4%
Paramount Skydance obtained necessary bondholder consent to amend debt terms, easing financial and structural conditions for the Warner Bros. acquisition and extending deadlines to accommodate regulatory approvals.
Paramount's $110B Warner Bros. acquisition expected to breach SkyShowtime venture with Comcast
Paramount jumps to 76%7%
Paramount's proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery was reported to create complications for its joint streaming venture SkyShowtime with Comcast, raising concerns about regulatory hurdles and partnership conflicts. This news influenced market perceptions about Paramount's acquisition prospects.
Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery deal may complicate SkyShowtime partnership with Comcast
Reports indicated that Paramount’s $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery could create complications for its SkyShowtime joint venture with Comcast, highlighting potential conflicts in streaming partnerships.
Netflix reports solid Q4 but stock falls amid subscriber growth concerns
Netflix dips to 0%1%
Netflix reported strong financial results but slowing subscriber growth raised concerns, impacting its stock negatively. This added pressure on Netflix's ability to close the Warner Bros. acquisition, reflected in its market price decline to near zero.
Paramount's hostile bid remains active as shareholder tender deadline approaches
Paramount continued to extend its tender offer and push for shareholder support, maintaining market confidence in its hostile bid despite Warner Bros. Discovery's board support for Netflix.
Warner Bros. board reaffirms Netflix offer superior, urges shareholders to reject Paramount
Netflix dips to 0%2%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board again recommended shareholders reject Paramount's hostile bid, citing risks and debt concerns, and endorsed Netflix's offer as providing superior value and certainty, reinforcing Netflix's favored status in the acquisition race.
U.S. Department of Justice and FCC clear Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount rises to 82%2%
Regulatory approval from the DOJ and FCC removed the final major obstacles for Paramount's acquisition, solidifying the deal's likelihood and pushing market prices to near certainty for Paramount's win.
Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders approve Paramount's $110 billion acquisition
Paramount dips to 73%4%
Shareholders of Warner Bros. Discovery voted to approve Paramount Skydance's $110 billion acquisition, solidifying Paramount's position as the acquirer and confirming the market's resolution direction.
Paramount Skydance hit with antitrust lawsuit over Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition
Paramount drops to 68%6%
An antitrust lawsuit was filed against Paramount Skydance alleging the acquisition would harm competition and consumers, introducing regulatory and legal risks that affected market sentiment and acquisition timelines.
Paramount hit with antitrust lawsuit over Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition
An antitrust lawsuit was filed against Paramount alleging the acquisition would reduce competition and harm consumers, introducing regulatory risk to the merger's completion and impacting market sentiment.
Paramount Hit With Antitrust Lawsuit by Subscribers Seeking to Block WBD Merger
None by June 30, 2027 dips to 18%3%
A group of streaming subscribers filed a class-action antitrust lawsuit in California federal court, arguing the merger would reduce competition and raise prices.
EU completes phase‑1 review of Paramount‑Warner Bros. deal
None by June 30, 2027 rises to 13%1%
The European Commission completed its phase‑1 antitrust review of the Paramount‑WBD deal, signalling that EU clearance was on track. The news nudged the “None” probability upward as investors priced in possible regulatory delays.
European antitrust regulators complete phase 1 review of Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery deal
Paramount jumps to 84%10%
The European antitrust review phase 1 was completed smoothly, suggesting regulatory approval is progressing well, which supports the expected closing timeline of the Paramount acquisition.
UK CMA to open investigation into Paramount‑Warner Bros. Discovery merger
Paramount plunges to 71%15%
The CMA announced it would launch an antitrust investigation into the Paramount‑Warner deal, temporarily dampening the “Paramount” price (which fell from 86 % to 71 %).
Warner Bros. CinemaCon show highlights upcoming films amid acquisition uncertainty
Paramount jumps to 80%10%
Warner Bros. showcased major upcoming films at CinemaCon, reflecting ongoing business as usual despite the pending acquisition battle. Industry concerns about consolidation effects on production and theaters were noted, influencing market sentiment about the acquisition's future.
Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders approve merger with Paramount Skydance
Shareholders overwhelmingly approved the merger with Paramount Skydance, favoring its bid over Netflix's, marking a decisive step toward closing the acquisition.
Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders approve Paramount Skydance acquisition
Paramount jumps to 78%8%
Shareholders of Warner Bros. Discovery voted in favor of the $110.9 billion acquisition by Paramount Skydance, solidifying Paramount's position as the leading acquirer and ending the bidding battle with Netflix.
Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders overwhelmingly approve Paramount's acquisition
Paramount jumps to 76%7%
Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders voted overwhelmingly to approve Paramount's $111 billion acquisition, a crucial step toward closing the deal, pending regulatory approvals. This boosted market confidence in Paramount's successful acquisition.
Netflix plans $25 billion share buyback after failed Warner Bros. Discovery bid
After withdrawing from the Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition, Netflix shifted focus to internal growth and announced a $25 billion share buyback, signaling a strategic pivot following the failed bid.
Warner Bros. Discovery schedules shareholder meeting to approve Paramount acquisition
Paramount jumps to 74%5%
Warner Bros. Discovery set a shareholder meeting date of April 23, 2026, to vote on the Paramount Skydance acquisition, a key procedural step toward finalizing the deal and increasing market confidence in Paramount's eventual success.
Warner Bros. shareholders approve Paramount’s $31-a-share acquisition deal
Paramount dips to 72%1%
Shareholders overwhelmingly approved Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, moving the deal closer to completion and solidifying Paramount's position as the likely acquirer.
Comcast files letter of intent for Warner Bros. Discovery streaming assets
Comcast rises to 1%1%
Comcast quietly filed a letter of intent to explore a possible bid for Warner Bros. Discovery’s streaming assets; the market’s “Comcast” probability rose briefly from 0 % to 1 % before returning to zero.
Regulatory uncertainty pushes “None” probability higher
None by June 30, 2027 jumps to 29%11%
A market‑price spike for the “None” outcome followed reports of heightened scrutiny in the United Kingdom and pending state‑level challenges, pushing investors to assign more probability to a delayed or failed closing.
Market shifts toward delayed Warner Bros. acquisition amid UK regulatory scrutiny
None by June 30, 2027 jumps to 29%11%
The prediction market saw a significant increase in the probability that no acquisition would close before July 2027, reflecting concerns about regulatory delays in the UK and Europe, causing a temporary dip in Paramount's acquisition odds.
Market shifts toward longer acquisition timeline amid UK regulatory scrutiny
None by June 30, 2027 jumps to 29%11%
The prediction market saw a significant increase in the probability that no acquisition would close before July 2027, reflecting concerns about regulatory delays in the UK and the complexity of the approval process, which could extend the deal timeline.
Regulatory scrutiny in UK and US raises acquisition delay concerns
None by June 30, 2027 jumps to 29%11%
Emerging regulatory scrutiny in the UK and pending state-level challenges in the US caused the market to increase the probability of no acquisition by June 30, 2027, reflecting concerns about potential delays or failure to close the deal.
Market prices spike for 'None by June 30, 2027' amid regulatory scrutiny and delays
None by June 30, 2027 jumps to 29%11%
The prediction market saw a significant increase in the probability that no acquisition would close by June 30, 2027, reflecting growing regulatory scrutiny in the UK and other jurisdictions, and concerns about delays in closing the deal. This caused a temporary shift away from Paramount and Netflix outcomes.
Larry Ellison guarantees $40.4B equity financing for Paramount's Warner bid
Paramount rises to 77%3%
Larry Ellison, Oracle founder and father of Paramount CEO David Ellison, personally guaranteed $40.4 billion in equity financing for Paramount's hostile bid, bolstering Paramount's financial backing and intensifying the takeover battle.
Paramount responds to open letter opposing Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition
Paramount issued a statement defending the acquisition, emphasizing the benefits for creators and competition, amid opposition from over 2,000 industry professionals.
Paramount responds to industry opposition to Warner Bros. Discovery merger
Paramount jumps to 83%5%
Paramount issued a statement defending its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery amid opposition from Hollywood professionals and state attorneys general, highlighting the strategic benefits and creative investment potential of the merger. This event underscored regulatory and public scrutiny risks.
Warner Bros. shareholders approve Paramount's $81 billion takeover
Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders overwhelmingly approved the sale to Paramount, increasing market confidence in Paramount's acquisition and boosting its price probability significantly.
Hollywood creatives oppose Paramount's proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount drops to 71%10%
Over 1,000 writers, actors, and directors publicly opposed the Paramount acquisition, citing concerns about reduced competition and fewer movies in theaters. This added public pressure and regulatory scrutiny, contributing to market volatility.
Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders approve Paramount's $81 billion takeover bid
Paramount jumps to 76%5%
Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders overwhelmingly approved Paramount's $81 billion takeover, increasing confidence in Paramount's acquisition and driving its market price higher.
Netflix deal eclipsed as Paramount gains shareholder approval
Netflix dips to 1%2%
With Paramount’s shareholder vote and DOJ approval, the previously dominant Netflix deal became irrelevant, collapsing the “Netflix” probability to 1 % and eventually 0 % by late June.
Paramount and Skydance Announce Plans to Combine CBS Sports and TNT Sports
Paramount drops to 71%5%
Paramount and Skydance announced plans to combine CBS Sports and TNT Sports once regulators clear the acquisition, indicating operational consolidation following the acquisition agreement.
Shareholders approve Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery merger
Paramount jumps to 78%5%
Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders approved the merger with Paramount, reinforcing market confidence in Paramount's acquisition and reducing the likelihood of no acquisition or Netflix winning.
Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders approve Paramount Skydance acquisition
Shareholders of Warner Bros. Discovery approved the acquisition by Paramount Skydance, clearing a major hurdle for the deal and increasing the likelihood of Paramount closing the acquisition.
Warner Bros. Discovery reiterates support for Netflix deal amid ongoing Paramount bid
Warner Bros. Discovery's leadership reaffirmed their commitment to the Netflix acquisition, emphasizing the superior value and certainty of the Netflix deal despite Paramount's ongoing hostile bid and proxy fight.
Netflix revises Warner Bros. offer to all-cash deal to counter Paramount
Netflix dips to 1%1%
Netflix revised its $72 billion offer for Warner Bros. Discovery to an all-cash transaction, simplifying the deal structure to provide more certainty to shareholders and speed up the shareholder vote, strengthening its competitive position against Paramount's hostile bid.
Warner Bros. Discovery schedules shareholder vote on Netflix merger and Paramount offer
WBD set a special shareholder meeting to vote on the Netflix merger and to consider Paramount's best and final offer, increasing market uncertainty but ultimately favoring Paramount as Netflix's deal was less favored.
Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders approve Netflix merger
Netflix dips to 0%2%
Shareholders voted on the Netflix merger; the result was a narrow approval, causing the “Netflix” probability to fall to 0 % and the “Paramount” price to stabilize near 78 %.
Paramount completes $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount finalized the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery for $31 per share, reshaping the media landscape. The deal ended the months-long bidding war and confirmed Paramount as the acquirer of Warner Bros. studios and streaming businesses.
Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders approve Paramount's $111 billion acquisition
Paramount jumps to 85%6%
Shareholders of Warner Bros. Discovery approved the Paramount Skydance acquisition, solidifying Paramount's position as the acquirer. This shareholder approval was a key step toward closing the deal, increasing market confidence in Paramount's acquisition.
Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders vote to approve Netflix merger agreement
Shareholders were scheduled to vote on the Netflix merger agreement, with the Warner Bros. Discovery board still recommending approval despite ongoing talks with Paramount Skydance for a superior offer.
Netflix withdraws from Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition race
Paramount jumps to 88%14%
Netflix announced it would no longer pursue the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, citing financial unattractiveness. This cleared the path for Paramount to finalize the acquisition, reflected in Paramount's price surge to 88%.
Paramount launches hostile $77.9B bid challenging Netflix's $72B Warner Bros. deal
Paramount drops to 68%11%
Paramount publicly launched a hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, offering $77.9 billion in cash for the entire company, including cable assets Netflix does not want, escalating the bidding war and causing market volatility.
Netflix walks away from Warner Bros. acquisition, clearing path for Paramount
Netflix plunges to 4%42%
Netflix announced it was withdrawing from the Warner Bros. acquisition due to the increased price making the deal financially unattractive, effectively clearing the way for Paramount to complete the acquisition, which caused Netflix's market price to plummet.
Warner board reaffirms support for Netflix merger
None by June 30, 2027 rises to 15%1%
Warner Bros. Discovery’s board reiterated its recommendation that shareholders approve the Netflix acquisition, effectively diminishing the perceived viability of Paramount’s bid and causing the ‘None by June 30 2027’ outcome to dip further.
Paramount advances hostile takeover with plans to nominate own Warner Bros. board
Paramount dips to 74%2%
Paramount announced it would nominate its own slate of directors for Warner Bros. Discovery before the next shareholder meeting and filed a lawsuit to compel disclosure of Warner's valuation of bids, intensifying the hostile takeover attempt.
Warner Bros. rejects Paramount takeover again, backs Netflix deal
Paramount rises to 14%4%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board again rejected Paramount's hostile takeover bid, reaffirming support for Netflix's offer. This reinforced market confidence in Netflix's deal but Paramount's bid remained active, keeping the contest alive.
Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery Agree to Blockbuster $110 Billion Merger
Paramount surges to 77%24%
Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery officially signed a definitive merger agreement valued at $110 billion, with Paramount paying $31 per share in cash.
Paramount's bid gains momentum with backing from Larry Ellison and Middle Eastern funds
Paramount surges to 80%43%
Paramount Skydance's bid strengthened significantly due to financial backing from Larry Ellison and Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds, and perceived regulatory advantages. This caused its market price to surge from 37% to over 80% in early March 2026.
Warner Bros rejects Paramount takeover again, backs Netflix bid
Netflix dips to 2%1%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board rejected Paramount's hostile takeover offer, citing insufficient value and risks, and urged shareholders to support Netflix's $72 billion deal for the studios and streaming business, reinforcing Netflix's position in the market.
Paramount CEO details plans post-Warner Bros. acquisition
Paramount dips to 78%3%
Paramount CEO David Ellison announced plans to keep Paramount and Warner Bros. as separate studios with increased film output, signaling confidence in closing the acquisition and operational plans, supporting Paramount's strong market position.
Paramount confirmed as winner of Warner Bros. acquisition after Netflix exit
Paramount dips to 76%2%
Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery was confirmed following Netflix's exit, with the deal expected to close in Q3 2026 pending regulatory and shareholder approvals. This solidified Paramount's market position at a high price level.
Paramount confirmed as winning bidder after Netflix bows out of Warner Bros. acquisition race
Paramount rises to 78%2%
Netflix decided not to match Paramount's superior offer, effectively ending its pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery. This solidified Paramount's position as the likely acquirer, reflected in a rise in its market price.
Paramount launches hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount surges to 74%47%
Paramount launched a hostile bid offering $31 per share backed by Larry Ellison, intensifying the acquisition battle and causing Paramount’s market probability to surge while Netflix’s declined sharply.
Paramount Skydance secures Department of Justice approval for Warner Bros. acquisition
The U.S. Department of Justice cleared Paramount Skydance’s $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, finding no antitrust violations and stating the deal would likely strengthen competition. This regulatory approval was a major step toward closing the acquisition.
Paramount wins boardroom battle for Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition
Paramount jumps to 83%5%
Paramount Skydance secured control of Warner Bros. Discovery after the board determined its topping bid was superior, solidifying Paramount as the acquirer in the market.
Paramount Announces Merger Plans and Streaming Service Integration
Paramount drops to 76%5%
Paramount announced plans to merge Paramount+ and HBO Max into one streaming service after the acquisition, signaling strategic integration and strengthening its position post-acquisition.
Paramount extends $77.9B hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount dips to 76%3%
Paramount extended its tender offer deadline and doubled down on a proxy fight to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, offering $30 per share in cash for the entire company, challenging Netflix's $72 billion deal for just the studios and streaming business. This escalated the bidding war and increased market uncertainty.
Netflix's acquisition chances diminish as market price drops to near zero
Netflix plunges to 2%40%
Following Netflix's decision not to improve its offer and Paramount's signing of the acquisition agreement, Netflix's market price for acquiring Warner Bros. dropped sharply to near zero, reflecting the market's loss of confidence in Netflix closing the deal.
Netflix withdraws from Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition race
Netflix plunges to 2%37%
Netflix officially withdrew its bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery after Paramount raised its offer, effectively ending the bidding war and reducing Netflix's market probability to near zero.
Netflix officially exits Warner Bros. acquisition race after Paramount's superior bid
Paramount dips to 0%1%
Netflix declined to improve its offer and exited the acquisition process, leaving Paramount as the sole remaining bidder to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming assets.
Netflix declines to match Paramount's final $31/share offer, ending pursuit
Paramount dips to 1%1%
Netflix chose not to increase its bid beyond Paramount's $31/share all-cash offer, effectively conceding the acquisition to Paramount and causing Netflix's market price to collapse.
Netflix revises Warner Bros. offer to all-cash transaction to counter Paramount
Netflix plunges to 2%48%
Netflix converted its original cash-and-stock offer to an all-cash deal valued at $72 billion to simplify the transaction and increase certainty for shareholders, aiming to counter Paramount's hostile bid.
Netflix declines to improve its Warner Bros. Discovery proposal
Netflix dips to 1%3%
Netflix publicly confirmed it would not renew its bid after Paramount’s superior offer, causing the Netflix probability to collapse to near‑zero (1 %).
Paramount announces $110 billion deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount jumps to 87%12%
Paramount Skydance announced a $110 billion deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, paying $31 per share in cash, after Netflix declined to match the offer, marking the conclusion of the bidding war and reshaping the media industry.
Netflix's acquisition chances collapse after Paramount's financing boost
Netflix plunges to 1%48%
Following Paramount's financing guarantee, Netflix's market probability plummeted from 49% to 1%, reflecting investor skepticism about Netflix's ability to outbid Paramount and close the deal.
Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Skydance sign $110 billion merger agreement
Paramount surges to 78%47%
After Netflix declined to raise its offer, Warner Bros. Discovery agreed to a $110 billion merger deal with Paramount Skydance, marking a decisive shift in the acquisition race and causing Paramount's market price to surge.
Netflix's bid probability collapses amid Paramount's rising bid and regulatory concerns
Netflix plunges to 2%44%
By late February 2026, Netflix's market probability sharply declined from around 46% to near 2%, reflecting growing doubts about Netflix's ability to finalize the acquisition amid Paramount's aggressive counterbids and regulatory scrutiny. This shift indicated the market's reassessment favoring Paramount.
Netflix bid collapses amid antitrust concerns and regulatory hurdles
Netflix plunges to 2%38%
Netflix's bid for Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming business collapsed due to antitrust alarms and regulatory challenges, causing its market price to plummet from around 40% to near zero by early March 2026.
Warner Bros. Discovery signs $110 billion acquisition agreement with Paramount Skydance
Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Skydance formally signed an agreement for Paramount to acquire the company for $110 billion, following Netflix’s exit from the bidding war, with closing expected in Q3 2026.
Netflix price collapses after market doubts on deal completion
Netflix plunges to 1%46%
Following reports that regulatory hurdles and the pending spin‑off of Warner’s cable assets could delay the Netflix acquisition, investor confidence eroded sharply, driving Netflix’s market price down to near zero.
Netflix revises $72B Warner Bros. offer to all-cash deal
Netflix plunges to 2%46%
Netflix converted its original cash-and-stock offer into an all-cash transaction to simplify the deal and make it more attractive to Warner Bros. shareholders, aiming to counter Paramount's hostile bid. This move initially boosted Netflix's price but was insufficient to regain lost ground.
Warner Bros. Discovery board accepts Paramount’s $31 per share offer, ending Netflix deal
Paramount surges to 81%55%
After negotiations and Paramount raising its bid to $31 per share, Warner Bros. Discovery's board determined Paramount’s proposal was superior to Netflix’s and signed a definitive agreement, effectively ending Netflix’s acquisition attempt.
Paramount Skydance confirms $110 billion deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount surges to 81%51%
Paramount Skydance confirmed its agreement to acquire all of Warner Bros. Discovery for $110 billion, marking the likely conclusion of the bidding war and setting the stage for regulatory approval and closing.
Paramount announces $31 per share offer, winning board approval over Netflix
Paramount surges to 80%30%
Paramount increased its bid to $31 per share in cash, valued at approximately $110 billion, which Warner Bros. Discovery's board deemed superior to Netflix's offer, reopening negotiations and shifting market probabilities heavily in Paramount's favor.
Paramount Skydance submits superior $110 billion all-cash bid for Warner Bros.
Paramount surges to 88%57%
Paramount Skydance announced a topping all-cash bid of $31 per share, valuing the deal at approximately $110 billion, surpassing Netflix's offer. This led Warner Bros. Discovery to terminate its agreement with Netflix and accept Paramount's proposal, causing a major shift in market expectations.
Warner Bros. Discovery board approves Paramount's $31 per share acquisition offer
Paramount surges to 74%37%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board unanimously approved Paramount's definitive merger agreement to acquire the company for $31 per share in cash, effectively ending the bidding war and confirming Paramount as the acquirer.
Paramount signs definitive agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount surges to 85%51%
Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery signed a definitive agreement to acquire the entire company, including studios and streaming assets. The agreement cemented Paramount as the likely acquirer and was reflected in the large jump in Paramount odds that day.
Paramount Skydance signs $110 bn deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount jumps to 84%10%
Paramount Skydance signed a definitive acquisition agreement to buy Warner Bros. Discovery for $31 per share (≈$110 bn). The deal’s signing caused the Paramount outcome to surge to its highest levels (84‑88 %) and effectively eliminated the Netflix probability.
DOJ clears Paramount Skydance’s $110 bn Warner Bros. acquisition
The DOJ announced it would not block the Paramount‑Warner Bros. deal, removing a major regulatory obstacle and reinforcing market confidence in the Paramount outcome, keeping its price near the 84‑% peak.
Netflix drops Warner Bros. deal after White House visit
Netflix plunges to 0%45%
A CapWolf article reported that Netflix walked away from its Warner Bros. deal after a White House visit, confirming the deal’s collapse. The market’s “Netflix” probability fell to 1 % shortly thereafter and hit 0 % by late April.
Warner Bros. Discovery board concludes Paramount's $31/share offer is superior; Netflix walks away
Paramount surges to 80%27%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board determined Paramount's revised all-cash offer of $31 per share was superior to Netflix's deal. Netflix declined to match the offer and exited the bidding, paying a $2.8 billion termination fee.
Warner Bros. Discovery board unanimously selects Paramount's $31 per share offer over Netflix's deal
After reviewing competing bids, Warner Bros. Discovery's board determined Paramount's $31 per share all-cash offer was superior and signed a definitive agreement with Paramount.
Warner Bros. Discovery ends merger talks with Paramount, shares dip
Warner Bros. Discovery halted merger talks with Paramount, signaling the end of the potential merger. This reduced uncertainty and shifted market confidence back towards Netflix, though Paramount remained a contender.
Warner Bros. Discovery signs definitive agreement to be acquired by Paramount
Paramount surges to 87%63%
After reopening negotiations, Warner Bros. Discovery determined Paramount’s revised proposal of $31 per share was superior to Netflix’s offer, leading to a signed definitive agreement for acquisition expected to close in Q3 2026.
Paramount Skydance wins Warner Bros. acquisition bid as Netflix declines to improve offer
Paramount surges to 85%58%
Paramount Skydance's $31 per share offer was accepted after Netflix chose not to increase its bid, effectively ending the bidding war and positioning Paramount as the acquirer.
Warner Bros. Discovery signs merger agreement with Paramount Skydance
Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Skydance signed a definitive agreement for Paramount to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery for $110.9 billion, with the deal expected to close in Q3 2026 pending regulatory and shareholder approvals. This formalized Paramount as the acquirer, solidifying market expectations.
Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Skydance Sign Definitive $110 Billion Merger Agreement
Paramount surges to 88%45%
WBD terminated its previous agreement with Netflix and entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Paramount Skydance for $31.00 per share.
Paramount Skydance signs definitive agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery for $110.9 billion
Paramount surges to 85%48%
Paramount Skydance announced a definitive agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery for $110.9 billion at $31 per share in cash, following a months-long bidding war and board approval, positioning Paramount as the likely acquirer.
Paramount Skydance agrees to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery for $110 billion
Paramount surges to 74%23%
Paramount Skydance announced a definitive agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, including its studios and streaming businesses, for $31 per share, valuing the deal at approximately $110 billion. This followed Netflix's withdrawal and marked a key turning point favoring Paramount.
Paramount's bid surges after Larry Ellison's $40 billion personal guarantee
Paramount surges to 86%50%
Paramount's market probability surged from 36% to 86% after Larry Ellison made an irrevocable personal guarantee of $40.4 billion toward Paramount's all-cash offer, significantly boosting confidence in Paramount's ability to close the deal.
Netflix drops out of Warner Bros. acquisition bidding war
Netflix plunges to 3%34%
Netflix announced it would not match Paramount's higher bid and effectively dropped out of the acquisition race, causing its market probability to collapse to near zero.
Netflix abandons $83 billion Warner Bros. Discovery deal, accepts $2.8 billion breakup fee
Paramount surges to 73%73%
Netflix withdrew from its acquisition deal after Paramount submitted a superior $111 billion bid, leading to Paramount becoming the likely acquirer and causing Netflix's market probability to drop to zero and Paramount's to surge.
Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery agree to $110.9 billion acquisition
Paramount rises to 63%4%
Paramount Skydance Corporation and Warner Bros. Discovery entered into a definitive agreement for Paramount to acquire WBD for $110.9 billion in cash, marking the culmination of the bidding war.
Paramount Skydance announces $110 billion deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount jumps to 37%6%
Paramount Skydance publicly announced a definitive agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery for $110 billion, surpassing Netflix's bid and positioning Paramount as the frontrunner for the acquisition.
Paramount agrees to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery in $111 billion deal
Paramount surges to 79%26%
Paramount Skydance announced an agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery for approximately $111 billion, including debt, marking a decisive turn in the acquisition battle and causing Paramount's market price to surge.
Warner Bros. board accepts Paramount's superior $31 per share all-cash offer over Netflix
Paramount rises to 31%4%
After negotiations, Warner Bros. board determined Paramount's all-cash offer was superior to Netflix's deal, effectively ending Netflix's acquisition attempt and positioning Paramount as the leading acquirer.
Paramount and Warner Bros. announce definitive acquisition agreement
Paramount drops to 77%7%
Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery signed a definitive agreement for Paramount to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery for approximately $110.9 billion, with the transaction expected to close in Q3 2026, solidifying Paramount's winning bid.
Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery sign definitive merger agreement
Paramount dips to 77%3%
Following Netflix's withdrawal, Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery signed a definitive agreement for Paramount to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery for $110.9 billion at $31 per share in cash, with the transaction expected to close in Q3 2026.
Paramount Skydance announces $110.9 billion acquisition agreement for Warner Bros.
Paramount drops to 77%9%
Paramount Skydance announced a definitive agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery for $110.9 billion at $31 per share in cash, marking a decisive step toward closing the deal and displacing Netflix as the leading acquirer.
Netflix withdraws its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Netflix plunges to 0%45%
Netflix announced it would not match Paramount’s raised offer and withdrew its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, removing the rival bid, caused Netflix‑related market odds to plummet and Paramount‑related odds to spike as investors saw Paramount becoming the clear front‑runner.
Warner Bros. Discovery accepts Paramount's $31 per share offer, Netflix declines to improve bid
Warner Bros. Discovery determined Paramount Skydance's $31 per share all-cash offer was superior to Netflix's $27.75 per share deal. Netflix declined to improve its proposal, effectively conceding the acquisition to Paramount.
Warner Bros. Discovery considers Paramount's bid superior, Netflix declines to increase offer
Paramount surges to 81%50%
Warner Bros. Discovery confirmed Paramount's updated bid was superior, triggering a period for Netflix to improve its offer. Netflix declined, effectively exiting the bidding war, which shifted market confidence strongly toward Paramount.
Netflix withdraws bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, clearing way for Paramount
Paramount dips to 0%1%
Netflix formally withdrew from its planned acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery after the company's board deemed Paramount Skydance's higher all-cash offer superior. Netflix cited financial discipline and the deal no longer being financially attractive at the higher price, effectively ending the bidding war.
Netflix withdraws from bidding, Paramount's higher offer accepted
Paramount surges to 59%17%
Netflix announced it would not match Paramount's higher $31 per share all-cash offer, effectively withdrawing from the bidding and allowing Paramount to proceed with acquisition plans.
Warner Bros. Discovery board approves Paramount’s $31 per share acquisition offer
Paramount surges to 85%55%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board determined Paramount's $31 per share all-cash offer was superior to Netflix's deal, leading Netflix to decline to match the bid and exit the acquisition race. This decision significantly increased Paramount's market probability and ended Netflix's chances.
Netflix CEO visits White House amid antitrust concerns over Warner Bros. deal
Netflix plunges to 1%45%
Netflix CEO Ted Sarandos visited Washington to address antitrust concerns regarding the Warner Bros. acquisition, attempting to secure regulatory approval amid growing scrutiny and a renewed bidding war with Paramount.
Netflix declines to match Paramount's higher bid and exits acquisition race
Paramount plunges to 0%31%
Netflix formally declined to improve its offer to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, effectively withdrawing from the bidding war and leaving Paramount as the leading acquirer. This caused Netflix's acquisition probability to collapse to near zero.
Warner Bros. Discovery board determines Paramount's $31 per share offer superior; Netflix declines to improve bid
Paramount surges to 77%48%
After negotiations, Warner Bros. Discovery's board concluded that Paramount's higher $31 per share all-cash offer was superior to Netflix's, and Netflix chose not to increase its bid, solidifying Paramount's lead in the acquisition race.
Warner Bros. Discovery board deems Paramount’s $31-per-share offer superior to Netflix’s
Warner Bros. Discovery’s board declared Paramount Skydance’s revised $31-per-share all-cash offer superior to Netflix’s agreement, prompting Netflix to decline to raise its bid and effectively ending its pursuit.
Netflix Pulls Out of Warner Bros. Discovery Bidding Race
Netflix plunges to 4%36%
Netflix announced it would not match Paramount's higher valuation, abandoning its acquisition plans and clearing the path for Paramount to secure the deal.
Warner Bros. Discovery confirms Paramount's $31-per-share offer beats Netflix's bid
Paramount surges to 76%23%
Warner Bros. Discovery confirmed that Paramount's higher offer of about $110 billion ($31 per share) surpassed Netflix's bid, effectively ending Netflix's chances and boosting Paramount's market probability to a peak.
Paramount Skydance wins Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition after Netflix drops out
Paramount plunges to 0%33%
Paramount Skydance prevailed in its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery after Netflix decided not to match Paramount's higher all-cash offer of about $111 billion. This led to Paramount's market price rising significantly while Netflix's price dropped to zero.
Warner Bros. Discovery board declares Paramount's $111 billion bid superior, Netflix withdraws
Paramount surges to 85%62%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board determined Paramount's all-cash $111 billion offer was superior to Netflix's, leading Netflix to drop out of the bidding war and effectively handing victory to Paramount.
Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery reach agreement; Netflix declines to improve offer
Paramount surges to 81%51%
After negotiations, Warner Bros. Discovery determined Paramount’s revised proposal to acquire all outstanding shares for $31 per share was superior to Netflix’s deal. Netflix declined to improve its offer, effectively ceding the acquisition to Paramount.
Netflix declines to raise offer; Warner Bros. board declares Paramount's $111 billion bid superior
Paramount surges to 87%54%
After months of bidding, Netflix decided not to increase its offer beyond Paramount's $111 billion all-cash bid. Warner Bros. Discovery's board declared Paramount's offer superior, triggering a clause allowing Netflix four days to match it. Netflix declined, effectively conceding the acquisition to Paramount.
Warner Bros. Discovery Board Accepts Paramount's Superior $111 Billion Offer
Paramount surges to 81%53%
Warner Bros. Discovery confirmed that Paramount's higher offer of about $111 billion beat Netflix's bid, effectively ending Netflix's chances and boosting Paramount's market price to a peak.
Netflix declines to improve its acquisition proposal for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount surges to 85%48%
Netflix decided not to increase its bid after Warner Bros. Discovery's board determined Paramount's $31 per share offer was superior, effectively ending Netflix's pursuit and clearing the way for Paramount to win the acquisition.
Netflix declines to improve offer, ceding Warner Bros. acquisition to Paramount
Paramount surges to 80%44%
Netflix decided not to raise its bid to match Paramount's superior $31 per share offer, effectively ending its pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery. Warner Bros. Discovery's board declared Paramount's offer superior, paving the way for Paramount to acquire the company.
Warner Bros. Discovery reports Q4 and full year 2025 results
The company reported financial results showing growth in streaming and studios segments, supporting the value of Warner Bros. Discovery's assets and influencing acquisition interest and market prices.
Warner Bros. Discovery deems Paramount’s $31 per share bid superior; Netflix withdraws
Paramount jumps to 34%6%
Warner Bros. Discovery officially declared Paramount's all-cash $31 per share offer superior to Netflix's, prompting Netflix to withdraw from the bidding war and handing victory to Paramount.
Netflix declines to improve bid, effectively ending pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount surges to 82%82%
Netflix declined to improve its offer for Warner Bros. Discovery, effectively ending its pursuit and leaving Paramount's higher all-cash bid as the superior proposal. This decision shifted market confidence decisively towards Paramount as the likely acquirer.
Netflix Declines to Raise Offer for Warner Bros. Discovery
Netflix plunges to 2%35%
Netflix officially stepped away from the bidding war, choosing not to match Paramount's superior bid, which caused its market odds to collapse.
Netflix withdraws from Warner Bros. acquisition after Paramount's superior $111 billion bid
Paramount jumps to 41%14%
Netflix declined to match Paramount's higher $31 per share all-cash offer, effectively conceding the acquisition to Paramount. This decisive event caused Netflix's market probability to collapse and Paramount's to surge, as Paramount became the clear frontrunner.
Netflix withdraws from Warner Bros. acquisition bidding war
Netflix plunges to 0%45%
Netflix declined to raise its offer beyond Paramount's bid and withdrew from the acquisition race, effectively ending its chances to acquire Warner Bros. and causing its market probability to drop to zero.
Netflix exits bidding war, declines to raise offer for Warner Bros. Discovery
Netflix plunges to 0%46%
Netflix decided not to counter Paramount Skydance's higher bid, effectively ending its pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses. This caused Netflix's market probability to drop to zero and boosted Paramount's chances.
Netflix exits bidding war, declines to raise offer for Warner Bros. Discovery
Netflix announced it would not increase its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, effectively exiting the bidding war. This cleared the way for Paramount to become the leading bidder, shifting market expectations towards a Paramount acquisition.
Warner Bros. Discovery opens talks with Paramount amid Netflix merger deal
Warner Bros. Discovery agreed to a limited negotiation window with Paramount to consider an improved offer, while continuing to support the Netflix merger. Paramount indicated willingness to increase its bid to $31 per share.
Netflix declines to match Paramount's higher bid and exits Warner Bros. Discovery deal
Paramount surges to 86%85%
Netflix chose not to increase its bid to match Paramount's $31 per share offer, citing financial unattractiveness, effectively ending its pursuit and clearing the way for Paramount's acquisition.
Paramount submits revised acquisition proposal for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount Skydance submitted an updated bid to Warner Bros. Discovery addressing previous board concerns, attempting to re-engage leadership and compete with Netflix's offer in the ongoing acquisition battle.
Warner Bros. Discovery reviews revised acquisition bid from Paramount
Paramount jumps to 35%14%
Paramount submitted an updated acquisition proposal to Warner Bros. Discovery, intensifying the bidding contest against Netflix. This renewed offer increased Paramount's market probability as investors saw it as a stronger bid.
Paramount submits higher offer for Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition
Paramount jumps to 78%8%
Paramount raised its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery with significant financial backing from Larry Ellison and others, intensifying the bidding war and causing a modest market reaction with Paramount's price rising and Netflix's price slightly increasing.
President Trump publicly criticizes Netflix over Warner Bros. acquisition
Netflix drops to 44%12%
President Trump threatened Netflix over its Warner Bros. acquisition, creating political and regulatory uncertainty that pressured Netflix’s market probability downward during the bidding war.
Warner Bros. Discovery opens talks with Paramount amid Netflix merger support
Warner Bros. Discovery began a limited discussion period with Paramount to consider its higher offer, while continuing to support the Netflix merger. This created market volatility and uncertainty about the deal's outcome.
Netflix upgrades Warner Bros. deal to all-cash to counter Paramount’s hostile bid
Netflix jumps to 54%8%
Netflix amended its acquisition agreement to an all-cash transaction to strengthen its position against Paramount's hostile bid, aiming to accelerate shareholder voting and reduce financing risk, which boosted Netflix's market price significantly.
Paramount extends tender offer deadline for Warner Bros. shares
Paramount surges to 85%49%
Paramount extended the deadline for its tender offer to acquire Warner Bros. shares, signaling persistence in its hostile bid and causing a sharp rise in Paramount's market price as investors anticipated increased chances of success.
Netflix declines to raise offer, effectively exiting bidding war with Paramount
Paramount dips to 1%2%
Netflix announced it would not increase its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, effectively conceding the bidding war to Paramount Skydance, which had offered a higher all-cash price. This marked a turning point favoring Paramount's acquisition.
Warner Bros. Discovery reopens acquisition talks with Paramount after lawsuit
Paramount surges to 85%43%
Following Paramount's lawsuit, WBD reopened talks with Paramount to consider its best and final offer, signaling a shift in negotiations and causing Paramount's market price to rise sharply.
Warner Bros. Discovery Reopens Merger Discussions with Paramount Skydance Under Netflix Waiver
Paramount surges to 53%17%
WBD announced it would initiate a limited seven-day discussion window with Paramount Skydance to evaluate their improved offer, after Netflix granted a narrow waiver.
Warner Bros. Discovery reopens acquisition talks with Paramount amid lawsuit
WBD reopened negotiations with Paramount to consider its best and final offer after Paramount sued WBD for refusing to engage, though WBD continued to favor Netflix’s deal.
Netflix Grants Paramount Seven-Day Waiver to Improve Offer
Paramount surges to 81%39%
Netflix gave Paramount a seven-day waiver to improve its offer, signaling a potential reopening of negotiations and causing Paramount's market price to rise significantly.
Paramount lifts offer to $31 per share with $40 bn Ellison equity guarantee
Paramount surges to 79%27%
Bloomberg reported Paramount raised its per‑share offer to $31 and added a $40 bn equity guarantee from Larry Ellison, pushing the “Paramount” price to a new high of 79 % by early March.
Netflix declines to match Paramount's higher bid and withdraws from acquisition race
Netflix announced it would no longer pursue the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, citing financial unattractiveness, clearing the path for Paramount and causing Netflix's market probability to collapse to near zero.
Netflix declines to improve its offer for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount surges to 74%28%
Netflix declined to raise its bid after Paramount increased its offer, signaling Netflix's exit from the bidding war and shifting market probabilities decisively toward Paramount.
Warner Bros. Discovery Reopens Buyout Talks with Paramount Skydance
Paramount surges to 54%17%
WBD announced it reopened discussions with Paramount Skydance, giving them a week to submit a final offer to challenge Netflix's existing $83 billion deal.
Warner Bros. Discovery reopens talks with Paramount after Netflix grants seven-day waiver
Paramount surges to 53%21%
Netflix gave Paramount a seven-day waiver to negotiate a best and final offer, leading Warner Bros. Discovery to reopen discussions with Paramount. This increased Paramount's market probability as it indicated a potential superior offer.
Warner Bros. Discovery reopens deal talks with Paramount, Netflix grants waiver
Paramount surges to 51%18%
Warner Bros. Discovery reopened negotiations with Paramount Skydance after Netflix granted a seven-day waiver to allow a 'best and final' offer. Paramount increased its bid to $31 per share, surpassing Netflix's offer, which pressured Netflix and shifted market probabilities toward Paramount.
Warner Bros. Discovery board reviews Paramount’s revised $30-per-share offer amid Netflix deal
Paramount rises to 76%3%
Paramount submitted a revised $30 per share offer with additional financial incentives, prompting Warner Bros. Discovery's board to reassess its options despite the existing Netflix deal. This development maintained Paramount's strong market position and kept pressure on Netflix.
Warner Bros. Discovery reopens takeover talks with Paramount after Netflix waiver
Paramount surges to 51%20%
Warner Bros. Discovery announced it would reopen formal talks with Paramount after receiving a waiver from Netflix, sparking a sharp rise in the “Paramount” price to 51 % and a dip for “Netflix”.
Paramount Skydance enhances bid with breakup fee coverage and ticking fee incentives
Paramount jumps to 36%6%
Paramount improved its offer by agreeing to cover Netflix's $5.8 billion breakup fee and adding a quarterly ticking fee to increase bid value if delayed, pressuring Netflix and WBD shareholders to reconsider.
Paramount submits sweetened $30 per share bid and opens talks with Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount submitted an improved $30 per share cash offer and entered a limited discussion period with Warner Bros. Discovery, challenging Netflix's merger agreement.
Paramount sweetens bid with ticking fee and breakup fee coverage
Paramount Skydance enhanced its offer by adding a quarterly ticking fee and agreeing to cover Netflix’s $5.8 billion breakup fee if the Netflix deal collapsed, aiming to make its bid more attractive and address shareholder concerns about deal certainty.
Paramount revises offer, adds quarterly payout to Warner Bros. Discovery bid
Paramount surges to 81%45%
Paramount revised its offer, adding a per‑quarter payment to sweeten the deal. The announcement spurred the market’s “Paramount” price to jump from the low‑40s to a peak of 81 % on Mar 4, the highest level in the analysis window.
Paramount Submits Amended $30 Per Share Cash Proposal to Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount jumps to 36%8%
Paramount submitted an updated, formal proposal of $30 per share in cash, putting pressure on WBD's board to reconsider their support for the Netflix deal.
Paramount submits $30 per share hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount launched a hostile $108.4 billion all-cash bid at $30 per share to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, surpassing Netflix's offer and challenging the existing agreement. This intensified the bidding war and created uncertainty about the final acquirer.
Paramount enhances bid with ticking fee and breakup fee coverage
Paramount jumps to 36%5%
Paramount added a ticking fee and promised to cover Warner Bros. Discovery's breakup fee owed to Netflix, making its offer more attractive and increasing pressure on Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery's board.
Paramount adds shareholder incentives and ticking fee to Warner Bros. Discovery bid
Paramount jumps to 36%9%
Paramount Skydance enhanced its acquisition offer by including a $0.25 per share quarterly ticking fee for delays and agreeing to cover Warner Bros. Discovery's breakup fee owed to Netflix, increasing the attractiveness of its bid and pressuring shareholders.
Paramount complies with DOJ information request, advancing regulatory clearance
Paramount jumps to 28%7%
Paramount Skydance certified compliance with the Department of Justice's second request for information related to its tender offer for Warner Bros. Discovery, signaling progress in regulatory review and boosting market confidence in Paramount's acquisition prospects.
Paramount complies with DOJ's Second Request for Information on Warner Bros. acquisition
Paramount jumps to 39%8%
Paramount certified compliance with the Department of Justice's Second Request for Information related to its all-cash tender offer to purchase Warner Bros. Discovery shares, marking progress in regulatory clearance for the acquisition.
Comcast ends pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery after failed bid
Comcast plunges to 2%31%
Comcast publicly disclosed its failed bid and decision to no longer pursue Warner Bros. Discovery, removing itself as a serious contender and causing Comcast’s market probability to drop to zero.
Paramount Skydance sues Warner Bros. Discovery over Netflix deal disclosure
Paramount rises to 71%2%
Paramount sued Warner Bros. Discovery to force disclosure of the Netflix deal terms, briefly reviving the “Paramount” price to 71 % before the market settled.
Netflix intensifies bid for Warner Bros. Discovery with all-cash offer
Netflix revised its acquisition offer to an all-cash $72 billion deal to win shareholder support and counter Paramount Skydance's hostile bid, aiming to simplify the transaction and accelerate shareholder approval.
Netflix intensifies bid with all-cash $72 billion offer for Warner Bros. Discovery studios and streaming
Netflix dips to 66%2%
Netflix revised its offer to an all-cash $72 billion bid to win over shareholders and counter Paramount's hostile takeover attempt, aiming to simplify the deal and accelerate shareholder approval.
Netflix revises Warner Bros. acquisition offer to all-cash $72 billion deal
Netflix jumps to 31%5%
Netflix increased its offer to an all-cash deal valued at $72 billion to provide greater certainty and expedite shareholder approval amid competition from Paramount's hostile bid.
Netflix amends Warner Bros. deal to all-cash offer amid Paramount's hostile bid
Netflix plunges to 42%15%
Netflix converted its Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition offer to an all-cash deal to increase certainty and discourage competing bids, while Paramount Skydance launched a hostile tender offer at a higher price. This intensified the bidding war and caused volatility in market prices.
Netflix upgrades Warner Bros. deal to all-cash to thwart Paramount bid
Netflix dips to 53%3%
Netflix amended its acquisition agreement to an all-cash deal to provide greater financial certainty and counter Paramount's rival takeover bid, but this was insufficient to prevent Paramount's eventual lead.
Netflix switches to all-cash offer to accelerate Warner Bros. acquisition
Netflix jumps to 65%9%
Netflix amended its acquisition agreement to an all-cash deal valued at $27.75 per share to provide greater certainty and speed up shareholder approval, aiming to fend off Paramount's hostile bid. This move temporarily bolstered Netflix's market position.
Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery amend acquisition deal to all-cash transaction
Netflix surges to 71%15%
Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery revised their acquisition agreement to an all-cash deal valued at $27.75 per share, aiming to provide greater certainty to shareholders and strengthen Netflix's position amid the bidding war.
Netflix revises Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition to all-cash offer
Netflix jumps to 6%5%
Netflix amended its acquisition offer to an all-cash deal at $27.75 per share to increase deal certainty and discourage competing bids, intensifying the acquisition battle.
Netflix revises Warner Bros. acquisition offer to all-cash to counter Paramount
Netflix jumps to 59%13%
Netflix revised its $82.7 billion cash-and-stock offer to an all-cash deal at $27.75 per share to provide greater certainty to shareholders and accelerate approval, aiming to strengthen its competitive position against Paramount's hostile bid.
Larry Ellison guarantees $40.4 billion for Paramount bid
Paramount drops to 78%7%
Oracle founder Larry Ellison pledged a personal guarantee for $40.4 billion of equity financing for Paramount’s offer, addressing concerns about the bid’s financing and temporarily boosting confidence in Paramount’s chance to close the deal.
Netflix updates Warner Bros. bid to all-cash offer to fend off Paramount
Netflix rises to 57%1%
Netflix revised its offer to an all-cash deal to increase certainty for Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders and to compete with Paramount's rival bid, temporarily supporting Netflix's position in the acquisition race.
Netflix amends Warner Bros. Discovery deal to all-cash transaction
Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery amended their acquisition agreement to an all-cash deal at $27.75 per share to increase deal certainty and speed shareholder vote. This move was partly to counter Paramount's hostile $30 per share bid.
Netflix revises bid to all-cash offer and secures Warner Bros. board approval
Netflix jumps to 65%11%
Netflix amended its bid to an all-cash offer for Warner Bros. Discovery's studio and streaming units and secured unanimous approval from the Warner Bros. board without increasing the purchase price.
Warner Bros. Discovery rejects Paramount’s $108 billion leveraged buyout offer
Warner Bros. Discovery's board unanimously rejected Paramount's amended $108.4 billion offer, citing it as a risky leveraged buyout with excessive debt and operational risks. The board recommended shareholders accept Netflix's lower but more secure cash-and-stock deal, influencing market confidence.
Netflix’s acquisition deal faces industry backlash and regulatory scrutiny
Netflix plunges to 4%34%
Hollywood creatives and theater owners expressed strong opposition to Netflix’s proposed acquisition, citing concerns over theatrical releases and market concentration, impacting market sentiment.
Paramount Skydance files lawsuit seeking financial details of Netflix deal with Warner Bros.
Paramount plunges to 26%18%
Paramount filed a lawsuit demanding Warner Bros. Discovery disclose financial details of the Netflix acquisition deal, aiming to convince shareholders that Paramount's $30/share offer is superior, escalating the takeover battle.
Paramount files antitrust lawsuit to block Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition
Paramount rises to 77%4%
Paramount filed an antitrust lawsuit alleging that its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery would harm competition, intensifying the legal and regulatory scrutiny around the deal and impacting market confidence.
Paramount Skydance files lawsuit against Warner Bros. Discovery over Netflix deal disclosures
Paramount Skydance sued Warner Bros. Discovery seeking disclosure of financial details related to the Netflix acquisition deal, alleging shareholders lacked sufficient information to compare offers. This legal action escalated the corporate battle and influenced shareholder sentiment.
Paramount sues Warner Bros. Discovery over Netflix deal disclosure
Paramount filed a lawsuit against Warner Bros. Discovery seeking disclosure of financial details about the Netflix deal, alleging the board failed to provide full and truthful information. This legal action highlighted the contentious nature of the acquisition process and affected market confidence.
Paramount files lawsuit against Warner Bros. Discovery over Netflix deal transparency
Paramount Skydance filed a lawsuit demanding Warner Bros. Discovery disclose details about the Netflix acquisition deal, escalating the corporate battle and reflecting Paramount's aggressive pursuit of the acquisition.
Paramount Skydance sues Warner Bros. Discovery for disclosure on Netflix deal
Paramount filed a lawsuit seeking detailed financial disclosures about Warner Bros. Discovery's pending Netflix deal, alleging shareholders lacked sufficient information to compare offers. This legal action highlighted the ongoing battle and affected market confidence in Netflix's bid.
Paramount files lawsuit seeking financial details on Warner Bros. Discovery Netflix deal
Paramount Skydance filed a lawsuit against Warner Bros. Discovery demanding more financial transparency on the Netflix deal, attempting to sway shareholders and challenge the board's decision. This legal action maintained pressure on the market and kept Paramount's bid relevant.
Warner Bros. Discovery rejects Paramount’s amended $108 billion takeover offer
Warner Bros. Discovery's board unanimously rejected Paramount's amended takeover offer, citing excessive debt risk and preferring the Netflix deal, which created legal and shareholder tensions affecting market perceptions.
Warner Bros. Discovery board rejects Paramount's offer, supports Netflix deal
Netflix drops to 22%6%
Despite Paramount's higher bid, Warner Bros. Discovery's board rejected Paramount's offer citing financing risks and recommended shareholders stick with Netflix's deal, temporarily supporting Netflix's acquisition chances.
Paramount reiterates superior $108.4 billion bid over Netflix's offer
Paramount rises to 32%2%
Paramount publicly stated that its all-cash bid was superior to Netflix's deal, emphasizing the value of Warner Bros. Discovery's cable assets excluded by Netflix. This reinforced market confidence in Paramount's bid.
Paramount reiterates $30-per-share all-cash bid backed by Larry Ellison
Paramount jumps to 26%5%
Paramount publicly reaffirmed its $30-per-share all-cash offer for Warner Bros. Discovery, emphasizing its superiority over Netflix's bid and highlighting backing by Larry Ellison. This strengthened Paramount's position and influenced investor confidence.
Deadline for Paramount's tender offer for Warner Bros. Discovery expires
Paramount's tender offer deadline expired, pressuring Warner Bros. Discovery's board to decide between Netflix's and Paramount's bids. The board continued to evaluate the offers amid regulatory scrutiny and shareholder considerations, maintaining uncertainty in the market.
Deadline for Paramount's tender offer expires amid ongoing acquisition battle
Paramount jumps to 21%5%
Paramount's tender offer deadline expired, creating a decisive moment for Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders to consider the competing offers. The market showed volatility as investors weighed the likelihood of each bid closing.
Paramount’s tender offer for Warner Bros. Discovery expires
Paramount rises to 31%1%
The tender offer deadline for Paramount’s bid passed without a binding agreement, causing the “Paramount” price to fall back toward the low‑30s and the “None” price to edge up slightly.
Paramount reiterates $108.4 billion bid as superior to Netflix's offer
Paramount jumps to 31%8%
Paramount Skydance publicly reaffirmed its $108.4 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, emphasizing the higher cash value and regulatory advantages over Netflix's proposal, which helped sustain market confidence in Paramount's chances.
Paramount launches hostile all-cash tender offer for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount jumps to 33%13%
Paramount Skydance launched a hostile all-cash tender offer to acquire all outstanding shares of Warner Bros. Discovery for $30 per share, valuing the company at approximately $108.4 billion. This offer surpassed Netflix's bid and intensified the bidding war, causing market shifts favoring Paramount.
Netflix declines to match Paramount’s $31 per share offer, exiting bidding war
Paramount surges to 85%84%
Netflix announced it would not raise its bid to match Paramount's $31 per share offer, effectively withdrawing from the acquisition contest. This cleared the path for Paramount to become the leading bidder and increased market confidence in Paramount's eventual acquisition.
Warner Bros. board recommends shareholders reject Paramount's offer in favor of Netflix's
Netflix rises to 31%1%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board publicly rejected Paramount's hostile bid, citing significant risks and debt financing, and urged shareholders to support Netflix's offer, reinforcing Netflix's position despite Paramount's higher cash bid.
Paramount reiterates $108 billion bid, claims Netflix deal undervalues cable assets
Paramount Skydance reaffirmed its $108.4 billion all-cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, arguing that Netflix’s offer undervalued the cable networks excluded from its deal, increasing pressure on Netflix to respond.
Warner Bros. Discovery calls Paramount lawsuit 'meritless' amid takeover battle
Paramount rises to 28%2%
WBD responded to Paramount's lawsuit demanding more financial details on the Netflix deal by calling it 'meritless' and accused Paramount of distracting shareholders. This legal conflict underscored the intense competition and affected market confidence in Paramount's bid.
Warner Bros. Discovery rejects Paramount’s $108 billion hostile bid
Paramount plunges to 28%20%
Warner Bros. Discovery publicly rejected Paramount's hostile takeover bid, citing financing uncertainty and excessive risk, reaffirming its support for the Netflix deal and causing Paramount's market probability to drop temporarily.
Warner Bros. Discovery board unanimously rejects Paramount’s revised $108.4 billion hostile bid
Paramount rises to 29%4%
The Warner Bros. Discovery board unanimously turned down Paramount's revised hostile bid, citing it as a risky leveraged buyout that investors should reject, reinforcing the board's support for Netflix's acquisition agreement.
Warner Bros. Discovery board rejects Paramount’s revised $108.4 billion bid, backs Netflix deal
Netflix jumps to 67%10%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board unanimously rejected Paramount's revised hostile bid, citing it as a risky leveraged buyout with excessive debt, and reaffirmed support for the Netflix deal. This maintained Netflix's position as the preferred acquirer despite Paramount's higher offer.
Comcast withdraws from Warner Bros. acquisition bidding
Comcast plunges to 0%33%
Comcast's president disclosed that the company's bid was light on cash compared to Netflix and Paramount, leading to Comcast's decision not to pursue the acquisition further. This caused Comcast's market price to drop to near zero.
Warner Bros. Discovery rejects Paramount's takeover bid, backs Netflix deal
Warner Bros. Discovery's board rejected Paramount's hostile takeover bid and reaffirmed support for Netflix's offer, reinforcing Netflix's favored status and causing market shifts against Paramount.
Netflix revises Warner Bros. Discovery deal to all-cash offer
Netflix jumps to 53%7%
Netflix amended its acquisition agreement to convert the deal into an all-cash transaction valued at $27.75 per share, aiming to simplify the deal and accelerate shareholder approval, reinforcing Netflix's position temporarily.
Larry Ellison personally guarantees $40.4B in Paramount's hostile bid
Paramount jumps to 31%8%
Larry Ellison, father of Paramount CEO David Ellison, personally guaranteed $40.4 billion in equity financing for Paramount's bid, strengthening the financial backing and credibility of the hostile offer. This caused a significant increase in Paramount's market price.
Paramount prepares $30 per share tender offer for Warner Bros. Discovery shares
Paramount jumps to 34%7%
Paramount escalated its bid by preparing a $30 per share tender offer, signaling a serious challenge to Netflix and increasing its market probability. This move intensified the bidding war and shifted market expectations toward Paramount.
Paramount extends tender offer deadline to Jan 21
Paramount surges to 85%62%
Paramount announced an extension of its tender offer window, giving shareholders more time to consider its $77.9 billion proposal, which revived hopes for Paramount’s success and lifted its price sharply.
Larry Ellison pledges $40.4 billion personal guarantee for Paramount’s Warner Bros bid
Paramount jumps to 23%9%
Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison personally guaranteed $40.4 billion in equity financing to back Paramount’s hostile bid, addressing concerns about financing reliability and strengthening Paramount’s position in the bidding war.
Paramount launches hostile $108 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 27%20%
Paramount Skydance launched a hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, offering $30 per share, backed by Larry Ellison's personal guarantee. This challenged Netflix's deal and introduced uncertainty, causing Netflix's price to fluctuate and Paramount's to initially drop then rise.
Warner board recommends shareholders back Netflix deal
Netflix plunges to 23%24%
Warner Bros. Discovery’s board issued a formal recommendation that shareholders reject Paramount’s bid and support Netflix’s acquisition, reinforcing market belief that Netflix is the likely acquirer and pushing the Netflix outcome higher.
Paramount revises offer, raises bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount rises to 74%2%
Paramount revised its tender, increasing the offer price and adding new financing guarantees, prompting a spike in the Paramount price (peak‑84% in June 2026) and a corresponding decline of the Netflix probability.
Paramount Skydance submits revised offer for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount rises to 30%4%
Paramount Skydance submitted a revised and higher offer for Warner Bros. Discovery, intensifying the bidding war and pressuring Netflix's position, which caused market volatility and a temporary drop in Netflix's probability.
Warner Bros. Discovery board recommends shareholders reject Paramount's revised offer
The Warner Bros. Discovery board unanimously recommended shareholders reject Paramount Skydance's revised offer, reaffirming support for the Netflix merger agreement despite Paramount's higher bid.
Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery enter exclusive merger agreement
Netflix dips to 67%4%
Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery entered exclusive negotiations and signed a merger agreement for the acquisition, solidifying Netflix’s lead and causing market prices for Netflix outcome to peak while others declined.
Netflix withdraws from Warner Bros. acquisition bidding war after Paramount's higher offer
Paramount plunges to 28%38%
Netflix backed out of the acquisition race after Paramount made a higher all-cash bid for Warner Bros., shifting market confidence sharply towards Paramount closing the deal.
Netflix leads initial bidding but Paramount challenges with higher offer
Paramount plunges to 28%20%
Netflix initially led the bidding for Warner Bros., but Paramount Skydance challenged with a higher cash offer, including the entire company and cable assets, which Warner Bros. Discovery's board found superior, leading to Netflix's deal losing favor.
Warner Bros. Discovery board rejects Paramount's hostile bid, backs Netflix deal
Netflix surges to 66%38%
WBD's board formally rejected Paramount's takeover bid, reaffirming commitment to Netflix's merger agreement, citing superior terms and financing certainty, which influenced market prices.
Warner Bros. Discovery rejects $108 billion Paramount Skydance merger proposal
Paramount plunges to 32%16%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board rejected a $108 billion acquisition proposal from Paramount Skydance citing concerns over financing and sovereign wealth fund involvement, causing Paramount's market probability to drop sharply.
Analysts cite rising acquisition odds for Warner Bros. Discovery
None by June 30, 2027 plunges to 5%42%
A sharp drop in the “None by June 30 2027” price to 5 % coincided with market analysts noting the increasing likelihood of a deal, reducing the probability that no acquisition would occur.
Warner Bros. Discovery rejects Paramount's $108 billion bid, reaffirms Netflix deal
Netflix surges to 47%19%
Warner Bros. Discovery rejected Paramount's hostile bid citing concerns over financing and sovereign wealth fund involvement, reaffirming its pending merger with Netflix. This led to a temporary rebound in Netflix's market probability.
Warner Bros. Discovery board rejects Paramount's hostile bid
Netflix drops to 23%5%
The Warner Bros. Discovery board rejected Paramount's hostile $108.4 billion bid, citing inadequate financing assurances, maintaining support for Netflix's deal at that time.
Warner Bros. Discovery rejects Paramount’s offer citing inadequate value
Paramount plunges to 28%20%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board rejected Paramount's hostile bid, calling it inadequate for shareholders and reaffirming support for Netflix's deal. This rejection caused Paramount's market price to drop significantly while Netflix's remained stable.
Warner Bros. Discovery board recommends shareholders reject Paramount's offer, supports Netflix deal
Netflix jumps to 34%6%
After review, Warner Bros. Discovery's board urged shareholders to approve the Netflix merger agreement and reject Paramount's hostile bid, citing Netflix's offer as more certain and superior, which temporarily boosted Netflix's market probability.
Warner Bros. rejects Paramount’s offer citing inadequate value
Warner Bros. Discovery rejected Paramount’s bid as too low, reinforcing Netflix’s position as the leading bidder and causing Paramount’s market probability to decline. This rejection underscored the board’s preference for Netflix’s higher offer.
Warner Bros. Discovery rejects Paramount’s $30/share acquisition offer, supports Netflix deal
Netflix drops to 59%6%
WBD’s board formally rejected Paramount’s hostile takeover bid, reaffirming support for Netflix’s merger agreement, which temporarily bolstered Netflix’s position and pressured Paramount’s bid.
Analysts question whether Netflix‑Warner deal will close
None by June 30, 2027 drops to 16%8%
After Netflix’s initial announcement, the market briefly shifted toward the 'None' outcome as analysts weighed whether the deal would close; the price dipped to the lowest point (16 %) for the ‘None’ option.
Paramount launches hostile $77.9 billion takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount challenged Netflix's friendly deal by making a hostile all-cash offer worth $77.9 billion for all of Warner Bros. Discovery, including cable assets Netflix does not want, increasing its market probability sharply.
Netflix revises offer to all‑cash structure
Netflix plunges to 43%23%
Netflix announced it would convert its $72 billion bid for Warner’s studios and streaming business into an all‑cash deal, aiming to simplify the transaction and sway shareholders away from Paramount’s proposal, causing Netflix’s price to surge.
Comcast's bid for Warner Bros. Discovery fades to near zero
Comcast plunges to 0%33%
Comcast's market probability dropped sharply from 33% to 0% by mid-December 2025, indicating its bid lost traction early in the bidding war and was not considered a serious contender.
Comcast discloses failed bid and exits Warner Bros. acquisition race
Comcast plunges to 1%32%
Comcast disclosed details of its failed bid for Warner Bros. Discovery and announced it would no longer pursue the acquisition, effectively removing itself from the competition and reducing the number of potential acquirers.
Comcast withdraws from Warner Bros. Discovery bidding war
Comcast plunges to 0%33%
Comcast disclosed it would not continue pursuing the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery after a hostile bid from Paramount interfered with the Netflix deal, leading to a collapse in Comcast's market probability.
Warner Bros. recommends shareholders reject Paramount's offer in favor of Netflix's
Paramount plunges to 32%16%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board urged shareholders to reject Paramount's hostile bid, citing risks and costs, and to support Netflix's offer, which it deemed superior. This led to a decline in Paramount's price and a temporary rebound in Netflix's price.
Warner Bros. Discovery board rejects Paramount's $108 billion bid, supports Netflix deal
Netflix jumps to 31%5%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board unanimously rejected Paramount's higher bid, reaffirming support for Netflix's $82.7 billion deal, citing risks and regulatory concerns with Paramount's offer, which maintained Netflix as the favored acquirer.
Warner Bros. Discovery rejects Paramount’s $30/share acquisition offer, supports Netflix deal
Netflix surges to 66%38%
WBD's board formally rejected Paramount's hostile bid and reaffirmed support for Netflix's agreement, causing Paramount's market price to drop and Netflix's to stabilize.
Warner Bros. Discovery urges shareholders to reject Paramount's hostile bid
Netflix drops to 56%10%
Warner Bros. Discovery publicly urged shareholders to reject Paramount's hostile $108 billion takeover proposal, stating Netflix's offer remains superior, supporting Netflix's position and pressuring Paramount's bid.
Paramount files Delaware suit demanding valuation details of its bid
Paramount plunges to 28%20%
Paramount Skydance sued Warner Bros. Discovery in Delaware Chancery Court to force disclosure of how the company values Paramount’s offer versus Netflix’s, intensifying the takeover contest and boosting Paramount’s odds.
Paramount launches hostile $108.4 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 28%20%
Paramount Skydance made a hostile bid of $108.4 billion to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, challenging Netflix's deal and intensifying the bidding war.
Paramount Skydance launches hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 28%20%
Paramount Skydance, backed by the Ellison family, launched a competing all-cash tender offer to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, challenging Netflix's deal and sparking a bidding war.
Comcast enters Warner Bros. bidding but with low odds of success
Comcast plunges to 0%33%
Comcast joined the bidding for Warner Bros. Discovery but acknowledged its offer was light on cash compared to Netflix and Paramount, leading to low market confidence and eventual withdrawal from the race, reflected in Comcast's price dropping to near zero.
Paramount launches $108 billion hostile all-cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 28%20%
Paramount Skydance launched a hostile all-cash tender offer to acquire all outstanding shares of Warner Bros. Discovery for $108.4 billion, surpassing Netflix's offer and challenging Netflix's position as the leading bidder.
Paramount raises bid to $108 billion to challenge Netflix for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount surges to 79%46%
Paramount Skydance made a hostile all-cash bid of $108.4 billion, significantly higher than Netflix's offer, intensifying the bidding war and causing a sharp increase in Paramount's market probability and a collapse in Netflix's.
Paramount launches hostile $77.9B takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount surges to 77%29%
Paramount initiated a hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, offering $30 per share in cash, surpassing Netflix's $72 billion friendly offer. This move sparked a bidding war and caused Paramount's market price to rise sharply while Netflix's price began to decline.
Paramount Skydance launches superior $108.4 billion all-cash bid for Warner Bros.
Paramount plunges to 28%20%
Paramount Skydance launched a hostile all-cash tender offer to acquire all outstanding shares of Warner Bros. Discovery for $30 per share, surpassing Netflix's offer by about $18 billion. This bid challenged Netflix's position and caused market uncertainty, with Paramount's price rising sharply.
Paramount Skydance launches $108.4 billion all-cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount surges to 39%15%
Paramount Skydance countered Netflix's offer with a higher $108.4 billion all-cash bid for the entire Warner Bros. Discovery, including cable networks, backed by Larry Ellison and sovereign wealth funds. This intensified the bidding war and caused a sharp rise in Paramount's market price.
Netflix announces $72 billion deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery
Netflix struck a friendly agreement to buy Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses for $72 billion, setting the initial market expectation for Netflix to close the acquisition.
Paramount launches hostile $30-per-share bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount Skydance made a hostile all-cash offer of $30 per share for Warner Bros. Discovery, challenging Netflix’s previously announced deal and intensifying the bidding war for the company.
Paramount Skydance submits hostile $108.4 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 25%23%
Paramount Skydance launched a hostile all-cash bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, surpassing Netflix's offer by about $18 billion. This intensified the bidding war and challenged Netflix's position as the likely acquirer.
Paramount launches hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery at $30 per share
Paramount plunges to 24%24%
Paramount Skydance responded to Netflix's deal by launching a hostile all-cash tender offer at $30 per share, valuing Warner Bros. Discovery at $108.4 billion, challenging Netflix's acquisition and escalating the bidding war.
Comcast withdraws from Warner Bros. bidding, citing low likelihood of success
Comcast plunges to 2%31%
Comcast acknowledged its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery was unlikely to succeed due to a cash-light offer compared to rivals Netflix and Paramount, leading to its withdrawal from the bidding process early on.
Paramount launches hostile $108 billion bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 26%22%
Paramount Skydance announced an all-cash tender offer to acquire all outstanding shares of Warner Bros. Discovery for $30 per share, valuing the company at $108.4 billion. This aggressive bid challenged Netflix's deal and caused a significant price movement favoring Paramount.
Paramount submits all-cash $30 per share offer for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 28%20%
Paramount made a competing all-cash offer of $30 per share for Warner Bros. Discovery, valuing the company at about $108.4 billion, challenging Netflix's earlier bid and causing Paramount's market price to rise sharply while Netflix's price declined.
Comcast explores potential bid for Warner Bros. Discovery’s studio and streaming assets
Comcast plunges to 1%32%
Comcast publicly explored a potential bid for Warner Bros. Discovery’s studio and streaming assets, signaling serious interest in the acquisition. However, Comcast's bid was seen as less likely to succeed due to regulatory challenges and was eventually dropped, leading to a decline in Comcast's market price.
Paramount launches all-cash tender offer to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery for $30 per share
Paramount plunges to 28%20%
Paramount Skydance announced an all-cash tender offer to acquire all outstanding shares of Warner Bros. Discovery for $30 per share, a higher bid than Netflix's offer. This aggressive move by Paramount introduced a rival bid that challenged Netflix's position and caused market shifts favoring Paramount.
Paramount Skydance launches hostile $108.4 billion all-cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 28%20%
Paramount Skydance made a superior all-cash offer of $108.4 billion to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, including cable networks, surpassing Netflix's bid. This triggered a sharp market shift favoring Paramount and casting doubt on Netflix's chances.
Paramount launches hostile all-cash bid of $108.4 billion for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 28%20%
Paramount Skydance launched a hostile all-cash tender offer to acquire all outstanding shares of Warner Bros. Discovery for $108.4 billion, surpassing Netflix's offer and challenging the existing agreement.
Paramount Launches Hostile Bid for Control of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 25%23%
Paramount Skydance launched an aggressive counter-bid of $108.4 billion ($30 per share) for the entirety of Warner Bros. Discovery, challenging Netflix's pending partial acquisition.
Paramount Skydance submits $30‑per‑share hostile tender offer for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount Skydance launched an all‑cash hostile tender offer (≈$30 per share) for all of Warner Bros. Discovery, directly challenging Netflix’s agreement and causing a sharp rise in the Paramount outcome and a rapid collapse of the Netflix probability.
Paramount launches $108.4 billion all-cash tender offer for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 28%20%
Paramount Skydance Corporation made a hostile all-cash tender offer to acquire all outstanding shares of Warner Bros. Discovery for $30 per share, surpassing Netflix's offer and initiating a bidding war for control of Warner Bros.
Paramount, Comcast, and Netflix submit bids for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount Skydance, Comcast, and Netflix submitted formal bids to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery or its core assets, initiating a competitive bidding process that shaped market expectations for the acquisition outcome.
Paramount launches hostile $108.4 billion all-cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 28%20%
Paramount Skydance launched a superior all-cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, surpassing Netflix's offer by about $18 billion. This aggressive move challenged Netflix's position and introduced significant competition, causing market confidence in Paramount to rise and Netflix's to fluctuate.
Netflix announces $82.7 billion deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery studios and streaming assets
Netflix surges to 66%20%
Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery announced a definitive agreement for Netflix to acquire Warner Bros.' film and TV studios, HBO, and HBO Max for $82.7 billion, marking a major media transaction and initially positioning Netflix as the leading acquirer.
Paramount, Netflix, and Comcast submit bids for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount, Netflix, and Comcast submitted formal bids to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery or its core assets, initiating a competitive bidding process that influenced market probabilities for each potential acquirer.
Paramount makes all-cash $108 billion hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 28%20%
Paramount launched a hostile takeover bid offering $30 per share in cash, challenging Netflix's friendly deal and causing market volatility with Paramount's probability rising and Netflix's falling.
Paramount launches hostile $77.9 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount dips to 47%1%
Paramount Skydance submitted a hostile all-cash bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, intensifying the acquisition competition and challenging Netflix's initial agreement. This led to a decline in Netflix's market price and a rise in Paramount's price.
Paramount Skydance makes $108.4 bn hostile all‑cash offer for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 30%18%
Paramount Skydance launched a hostile all‑cash bid of $30 per share ($108.4 bn) for the whole company. The price for the “Paramount” outcome jumped from 48 % to 30 % as investors weighed the higher headline value against the Netflix deal.
Paramount launches $108 billion counteroffer for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount surges to 85%37%
Paramount Skydance submitted a $108.4 billion bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, challenging Netflix's earlier agreement and intensifying the bidding war, which caused market prices to shift in favor of Paramount.
Comcast proposes combining NBCUniversal with Warner Bros. in new bid
Comcast proposed a new bid to merge Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming assets with NBCUniversal, aiming to create a new entertainment company. This bid increased Comcast's market presence but was ultimately less competitive than Netflix and Paramount.
Comcast discloses failed bid and exits Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition race
Comcast plunges to 1%32%
Comcast co-CEO Michael Cavanagh announced that Comcast would not continue pursuing Warner Bros. Discovery after a hostile bid from Paramount and Netflix's deal announcement, leading to Comcast's market probability dropping to zero.
Paramount makes all-cash $30 per share offer for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount Skydance made an all-cash offer of $30 per share for Warner Bros. Discovery, valuing the company at about $108.4 billion, surpassing Netflix's offer and initiating a bidding war for control of the company.
Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery announce definitive agreement for $72 billion acquisition
Netflix surges to 66%20%
On December 8, 2025, Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery announced a definitive agreement for Netflix to acquire Warner Bros.' studios and streaming business for $72 billion, pending the separation of Discovery Global. This formal agreement initially boosted Netflix's market probability but was later challenged by Paramount's higher bid.
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