The absence of a confirmed Supreme Court vacancy continues to distribute implied probabilities across multiple Trump-appointed appellate judges and other conservative legal figures, reflecting broad trader uncertainty over timing and selection criteria. Recent speculation around possible retirements, including unconfirmed reports involving Justice Alito, has not produced a frontrunner, while Senate confirmation dynamics ahead of the November midterms add procedural caution. Candidates such as James Ho and Andrew Oldham benefit from Fifth Circuit records and clerkship ties, yet no administration signals have elevated any single name. Ted Cruz’s explicit rejection of interest and the emphasis on vetted Trump judges further fragment support. An actual retirement announcement or targeted White House endorsement within the resolution window could consolidate odds, while sustained focus on lower-court confirmations keeps the field competitive.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWho will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?
Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?
James Ho 19%
Andrew Oldham 13%
Gregory Katsas 11.2%
Steven Menashi 9.2%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jan 19, 2029
James Ho
19%
Andrew Oldham
13%
Gregory Katsas
11%
Steven Menashi
9%
Patrick Bumatay
9%
Neomi Rao
7%
Amul Thapar
7%
Aileen Cannon
6%
Mike Lee
6%
John Sauer
4%
Ted Cruz
14%
James Ho 19%
Andrew Oldham 13%
Gregory Katsas 11.2%
Steven Menashi 9.2%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jan 19, 2029
James Ho
$645 ปริมาณ
19%
Andrew Oldham
$638 ปริมาณ
13%
Gregory Katsas
$175 ปริมาณ
11%
Steven Menashi
$105 ปริมาณ
9%
Patrick Bumatay
$1,541 ปริมาณ
9%
Neomi Rao
$109 ปริมาณ
7%
Amul Thapar
$944 ปริมาณ
7%
Aileen Cannon
$326 ปริมาณ
6%
Mike Lee
$125 ปริมาณ
6%
John Sauer
$121 ปริมาณ
4%
Ted Cruz
$160 ปริมาณ
14%
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The absence of a confirmed Supreme Court vacancy continues to distribute implied probabilities across multiple Trump-appointed appellate judges and other conservative legal figures, reflecting broad trader uncertainty over timing and selection criteria. Recent speculation around possible retirements, including unconfirmed reports involving Justice Alito, has not produced a frontrunner, while Senate confirmation dynamics ahead of the November midterms add procedural caution. Candidates such as James Ho and Andrew Oldham benefit from Fifth Circuit records and clerkship ties, yet no administration signals have elevated any single name. Ted Cruz’s explicit rejection of interest and the emphasis on vetted Trump judges further fragment support. An actual retirement announcement or targeted White House endorsement within the resolution window could consolidate odds, while sustained focus on lower-court confirmations keeps the field competitive.
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,888วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 19, 2029ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The absence of a confirmed Supreme Court vacancy continues to distribute implied probabilities across multiple Trump-appointed appellate judges and other conservative legal figures, reflecting broad trader uncertainty over timing and selection criteria. Recent speculation around possible retirements, including unconfirmed reports involving Justice Alito, has not produced a frontrunner, while Senate confirmation dynamics ahead of the November midterms add procedural caution. Candidates such as James Ho and Andrew Oldham benefit from Fifth Circuit records and clerkship ties, yet no administration signals have elevated any single name. Ted Cruz’s explicit rejection of interest and the emphasis on vetted Trump judges further fragment support. An actual retirement announcement or targeted White House endorsement within the resolution window could consolidate odds, while sustained focus on lower-court confirmations keeps the field competitive.
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,888วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 19, 2029ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The absence of a confirmed Supreme Court vacancy continues to distribute implied probabilities across multiple Trump-appointed appellate judges and other conservative legal figures, reflecting broad trader uncertainty over timing and selection criteria. Recent speculation around possible retirements, including unconfirmed reports involving Justice Alito, has not produced a frontrunner, while Senate confirmation dynamics ahead of the November midterms add procedural caution. Candidates such as James Ho and Andrew Oldham benefit from Fifth Circuit records and clerkship ties, yet no administration signals have elevated any single name. Ted Cruz’s explicit rejection of interest and the emphasis on vetted Trump judges further fragment support. An actual retirement announcement or targeted White House endorsement within the resolution window could consolidate odds, while sustained focus on lower-court confirmations keeps the field competitive.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย