The 2026 Senate map features multiple toss-up and lean contests in states including Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, Iowa, and New Hampshire, where recent polling averages show margins under five points amid a national environment favoring Democrats by roughly six points in generic ballot measures. Retirements such as Thom Tillis in North Carolina and Gary Peters in Michigan, combined with primaries that produced nominees like Roy Cooper, Abdul El-Sayed, and Ken Paxton, have expanded the battlefield and introduced volatility in voter turnout and candidate appeal. Forecasters rate Senate control as a near-even proposition requiring Democrats a net gain of four seats, with late-cycle economic indicators, approval trends, and get-out-the-vote efforts in these battlegrounds most likely to determine which races finish within 1% on November 3.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Ohio (Special)
53%
Maine
21%
Texas
19%
Alaska
17%
New Hampshire
16%
Michigan
15%
Minnesota
11%
Georgia
9%
North Carolina
7%
New Mexico
4%
Colorado
4%
Montana
3%
Virginia
2%
Iowa
38%
Nebraska
48%
Florida (Special)
47%
$2,912 ปริมาณ
Ohio (Special)
$84 ปริมาณ
53%
Maine
$18 ปริมาณ
21%
Texas
$52 ปริมาณ
19%
Alaska
$208 ปริมาณ
17%
New Hampshire
$269 ปริมาณ
16%
Michigan
$177 ปริมาณ
15%
Minnesota
$109 ปริมาณ
11%
Georgia
$0 ปริมาณ
9%
North Carolina
$189 ปริมาณ
7%
New Mexico
$274 ปริมาณ
4%
Colorado
$945 ปริมาณ
4%
Montana
$154 ปริมาณ
3%
Virginia
$157 ปริมาณ
2%
Iowa
$100 ปริมาณ
38%
Nebraska
$106 ปริมาณ
48%
Florida (Special)
$70 ปริมาณ
47%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 Senate map features multiple toss-up and lean contests in states including Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, Iowa, and New Hampshire, where recent polling averages show margins under five points amid a national environment favoring Democrats by roughly six points in generic ballot measures. Retirements such as Thom Tillis in North Carolina and Gary Peters in Michigan, combined with primaries that produced nominees like Roy Cooper, Abdul El-Sayed, and Ken Paxton, have expanded the battlefield and introduced volatility in voter turnout and candidate appeal. Forecasters rate Senate control as a near-even proposition requiring Democrats a net gain of four seats, with late-cycle economic indicators, approval trends, and get-out-the-vote efforts in these battlegrounds most likely to determine which races finish within 1% on November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,912วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 Senate map features multiple toss-up and lean contests in states including Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, Iowa, and New Hampshire, where recent polling averages show margins under five points amid a national environment favoring Democrats by roughly six points in generic ballot measures. Retirements such as Thom Tillis in North Carolina and Gary Peters in Michigan, combined with primaries that produced nominees like Roy Cooper, Abdul El-Sayed, and Ken Paxton, have expanded the battlefield and introduced volatility in voter turnout and candidate appeal. Forecasters rate Senate control as a near-even proposition requiring Democrats a net gain of four seats, with late-cycle economic indicators, approval trends, and get-out-the-vote efforts in these battlegrounds most likely to determine which races finish within 1% on November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,912วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Senate map features multiple toss-up and lean contests in states including Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, Iowa, and New Hampshire, where recent polling averages show margins under five points amid a national environment favoring Democrats by roughly six points in generic ballot measures. Retirements such as Thom Tillis in North Carolina and Gary Peters in Michigan, combined with primaries that produced nominees like Roy Cooper, Abdul El-Sayed, and Ken Paxton, have expanded the battlefield and introduced volatility in voter turnout and candidate appeal. Forecasters rate Senate control as a near-even proposition requiring Democrats a net gain of four seats, with late-cycle economic indicators, approval trends, and get-out-the-vote efforts in these battlegrounds most likely to determine which races finish within 1% on November 3.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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