OpenAI’s recent release of GPT-6 Astra on September 3 has fueled discussion, with president Greg Brockman describing it as potentially marking the start of the AGI era and Nvidia’s Jensen Huang declaring AGI has arrived. However, these statements fall short of a formal company announcement that the model meets OpenAI’s charter definition of AGI—highly autonomous systems outperforming humans at most economically valuable work. CEO Sam Altman has remained more measured, referencing internal progress toward an AGI-like system by late 2026 without claiming achievement. Mixed benchmark results, including strong provider-specific scores but lower independent evaluations on ARC-AGI and other suites, plus lingering safety pauses, reinforce trader skepticism. With no official declaration imminent and the 2027 deadline approaching, the 79.5% implied probability on “No” reflects consensus that OpenAI will avoid a definitive public claim in the near term.