**Republican candidates hold a clear edge in both the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races in Kansas, driving the 67.5% trader consensus on a Republican sweep.** Incumbent Senator Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state Donald Trump carried by roughly 16 points in 2024; forecasts project Marshall at 54-55% with an 89% implied win probability, consistent with no Democratic Senate victory in the state since 1932. The open gubernatorial contest pits Democrat Cindy Holscher against Republican Ty Masterson after primaries on August 4 narrowed the fields, with the most recent poll showing Holscher at 47% and Masterson at 46%. **The open seat creates the main uncertainty for the governor’s race, rated Lean or Tilt Republican by forecasters, which explains the 13.5% odds on a Democratic governor win paired with a Republican Senate hold.** Historical patterns of party alternation in the governor’s office and Holscher’s suburban Kansas City base keep that split plausible, though state fundamentals and the national environment favor Republicans overall. The low 3.1% on a Republican governor with a Democratic Senate win reflects the structural barriers in the Senate contest. Limited public polling since the primaries and the two-month window to November 3 leave room for late shifts, but current trader pricing aligns with Kansas’s consistent Republican lean in federal races.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วKansas Senate and Governor Combo
Kansas Senate and Governor Combo
Reps sweep 68%
Dems sweep 15%
Dems win Gov, Reps win Senate 14%
Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate 3.1%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Reps sweep
68%
Dems sweep
15%
Dems win Gov, Reps win Senate
14%
Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate
3%
Reps sweep 68%
Dems sweep 15%
Dems win Gov, Reps win Senate 14%
Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate 3.1%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Reps sweep
$3,022 ปริมาณ
68%
Dems sweep
$257 ปริมาณ
15%
Dems win Gov, Reps win Senate
$1,474 ปริมาณ
14%
Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate
$201 ปริมาณ
3%
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Kansas that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
**Republican candidates hold a clear edge in both the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races in Kansas, driving the 67.5% trader consensus on a Republican sweep.** Incumbent Senator Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state Donald Trump carried by roughly 16 points in 2024; forecasts project Marshall at 54-55% with an 89% implied win probability, consistent with no Democratic Senate victory in the state since 1932. The open gubernatorial contest pits Democrat Cindy Holscher against Republican Ty Masterson after primaries on August 4 narrowed the fields, with the most recent poll showing Holscher at 47% and Masterson at 46%.
**The open seat creates the main uncertainty for the governor’s race, rated Lean or Tilt Republican by forecasters, which explains the 13.5% odds on a Democratic governor win paired with a Republican Senate hold.** Historical patterns of party alternation in the governor’s office and Holscher’s suburban Kansas City base keep that split plausible, though state fundamentals and the national environment favor Republicans overall. The low 3.1% on a Republican governor with a Democratic Senate win reflects the structural barriers in the Senate contest. Limited public polling since the primaries and the two-month window to November 3 leave room for late shifts, but current trader pricing aligns with Kansas’s consistent Republican lean in federal races.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Kansas that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 19, 2026, 3:59 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,953วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 19, 2026, 3:59 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Kansas that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
**Republican candidates hold a clear edge in both the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races in Kansas, driving the 67.5% trader consensus on a Republican sweep.** Incumbent Senator Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state Donald Trump carried by roughly 16 points in 2024; forecasts project Marshall at 54-55% with an 89% implied win probability, consistent with no Democratic Senate victory in the state since 1932. The open gubernatorial contest pits Democrat Cindy Holscher against Republican Ty Masterson after primaries on August 4 narrowed the fields, with the most recent poll showing Holscher at 47% and Masterson at 46%.
**The open seat creates the main uncertainty for the governor’s race, rated Lean or Tilt Republican by forecasters, which explains the 13.5% odds on a Democratic governor win paired with a Republican Senate hold.** Historical patterns of party alternation in the governor’s office and Holscher’s suburban Kansas City base keep that split plausible, though state fundamentals and the national environment favor Republicans overall. The low 3.1% on a Republican governor with a Democratic Senate win reflects the structural barriers in the Senate contest. Limited public polling since the primaries and the two-month window to November 3 leave room for late shifts, but current trader pricing aligns with Kansas’s consistent Republican lean in federal races.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Kansas that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,953วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 19, 2026, 3:59 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Republican candidates hold a clear edge in both the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races in Kansas, driving the 67.5% trader consensus on a Republican sweep.** Incumbent Senator Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state Donald Trump carried by roughly 16 points in 2024; forecasts project Marshall at 54-55% with an 89% implied win probability, consistent with no Democratic Senate victory in the state since 1932. The open gubernatorial contest pits Democrat Cindy Holscher against Republican Ty Masterson after primaries on August 4 narrowed the fields, with the most recent poll showing Holscher at 47% and Masterson at 46%. **The open seat creates the main uncertainty for the governor’s race, rated Lean or Tilt Republican by forecasters, which explains the 13.5% odds on a Democratic governor win paired with a Republican Senate hold.** Historical patterns of party alternation in the governor’s office and Holscher’s suburban Kansas City base keep that split plausible, though state fundamentals and the national environment favor Republicans overall. The low 3.1% on a Republican governor with a Democratic Senate win reflects the structural barriers in the Senate contest. Limited public polling since the primaries and the two-month window to November 3 leave room for late shifts, but current trader pricing aligns with Kansas’s consistent Republican lean in federal races.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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