US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's main enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying or rendering inaccessible roughly 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium and eliminating most operational centrifuges. No verified resumption of large-scale enrichment or weaponization has occurred since, with IAEA monitoring curtailed at struck sites and international pressure, including recent UN Security Council referral attempts, reinforcing the setback. Trader consensus at 95 percent for no nuclear device by end-2026 reflects these verified military and technical constraints plus the time required for recovery. Late 2026 shifts remain possible if Iran extracts and processes the stockpile at undeclared underground locations like Pickaxe Mountain or accelerates covert work amid stalled diplomacy.