The EU's treaty architecture, requiring either a collective repeal agreement or formal withdrawal notifications from over half of its 27 members, combined with deep economic integration through the single market and eurozone, underpins the 99.3% trader consensus against dissolution by December 31, 2026. Recent polling across member states shows strong majorities favoring continued unity despite concerns over enlargement, fiscal pressures, and domestic instability in countries like France and Poland, with no coordinated exit movements or institutional triggers emerging in 2026. Eurosceptic rhetoric from some parties remains marginal in impact and lacks the scale or timeline to meet resolution criteria. Late developments such as a sudden multi-state withdrawal cascade or unforeseen systemic crisis could theoretically shift probabilities, though both face prohibitive legal, political, and logistical barriers within the remaining months.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วEU dissolves before 2027?
EU dissolves before 2027?
<1% โอกาส
$180,599 ปริมาณ
$180,599 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
<1% โอกาส
$180,599 ปริมาณ
$180,599 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The EU's treaty architecture, requiring either a collective repeal agreement or formal withdrawal notifications from over half of its 27 members, combined with deep economic integration through the single market and eurozone, underpins the 99.3% trader consensus against dissolution by December 31, 2026. Recent polling across member states shows strong majorities favoring continued unity despite concerns over enlargement, fiscal pressures, and domestic instability in countries like France and Poland, with no coordinated exit movements or institutional triggers emerging in 2026. Eurosceptic rhetoric from some parties remains marginal in impact and lacks the scale or timeline to meet resolution criteria. Late developments such as a sudden multi-state withdrawal cascade or unforeseen systemic crisis could theoretically shift probabilities, though both face prohibitive legal, political, and logistical barriers within the remaining months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$180,599วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The EU's treaty architecture, requiring either a collective repeal agreement or formal withdrawal notifications from over half of its 27 members, combined with deep economic integration through the single market and eurozone, underpins the 99.3% trader consensus against dissolution by December 31, 2026. Recent polling across member states shows strong majorities favoring continued unity despite concerns over enlargement, fiscal pressures, and domestic instability in countries like France and Poland, with no coordinated exit movements or institutional triggers emerging in 2026. Eurosceptic rhetoric from some parties remains marginal in impact and lacks the scale or timeline to meet resolution criteria. Late developments such as a sudden multi-state withdrawal cascade or unforeseen systemic crisis could theoretically shift probabilities, though both face prohibitive legal, political, and logistical barriers within the remaining months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$180,599วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...The EU's treaty architecture, requiring either a collective repeal agreement or formal withdrawal notifications from over half of its 27 members, combined with deep economic integration through the single market and eurozone, underpins the 99.3% trader consensus against dissolution by December 31, 2026. Recent polling across member states shows strong majorities favoring continued unity despite concerns over enlargement, fiscal pressures, and domestic instability in countries like France and Poland, with no coordinated exit movements or institutional triggers emerging in 2026. Eurosceptic rhetoric from some parties remains marginal in impact and lacks the scale or timeline to meet resolution criteria. Late developments such as a sudden multi-state withdrawal cascade or unforeseen systemic crisis could theoretically shift probabilities, though both face prohibitive legal, political, and logistical barriers within the remaining months.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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