Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 state election shows the SPD consistently at 10–12 percent across major surveys conducted in early to mid-September, including INSA, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and Infratest dimap. As the junior partner in the outgoing CDU–SPD coalition, the party has lost ground relative to its 2023 result amid gains for the Left, CDU, and AfD. With the vote days away and no late surge evident in the latest fieldwork, the implied probability heavily favors an outcome below the 13 percent threshold. Traders appear to be weighting the stable polling trend and the structural challenges facing the SPD in the current five-party contest.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วOver
13% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 20, 2026
Over
13% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 state election shows the SPD consistently at 10–12 percent across major surveys conducted in early to mid-September, including INSA, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and Infratest dimap. As the junior partner in the outgoing CDU–SPD coalition, the party has lost ground relative to its 2023 result amid gains for the Left, CDU, and AfD. With the vote days away and no late surge evident in the latest fieldwork, the implied probability heavily favors an outcome below the 13 percent threshold. Traders appear to be weighting the stable polling trend and the structural challenges facing the SPD in the current five-party contest.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$754วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 state election shows the SPD consistently at 10–12 percent across major surveys conducted in early to mid-September, including INSA, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and Infratest dimap. As the junior partner in the outgoing CDU–SPD coalition, the party has lost ground relative to its 2023 result amid gains for the Left, CDU, and AfD. With the vote days away and no late surge evident in the latest fieldwork, the implied probability heavily favors an outcome below the 13 percent threshold. Traders appear to be weighting the stable polling trend and the structural challenges facing the SPD in the current five-party contest.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$754วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 state election shows the SPD consistently at 10–12 percent across major surveys conducted in early to mid-September, including INSA, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and Infratest dimap. As the junior partner in the outgoing CDU–SPD coalition, the party has lost ground relative to its 2023 result amid gains for the Left, CDU, and AfD. With the vote days away and no late surge evident in the latest fieldwork, the implied probability heavily favors an outcome below the 13 percent threshold. Traders appear to be weighting the stable polling trend and the structural challenges facing the SPD in the current five-party contest.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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