Democratic candidates in several 2026 gubernatorial and Senate races face assessments of their performance relative to Kamala Harris’s 2024 statewide results. Key contests include Tina Kotek in Oregon’s governor race, Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia, Chris Pappas in New Hampshire’s Senate contest, and others in Michigan, Maine, and Florida. Traders weigh factors such as candidate fundraising, primary dynamics, state-level polling trends, and national political conditions following the 2024 presidential outcome. Upcoming November election results will determine resolution, with attention on turnout patterns among Democratic-leaning voters and any shifts in swing or battleground areas. Historical comparisons to prior midterm performances and base mobilization efforts provide additional context for probability assessments.