**US military action against Cuba remains a live but contested possibility in trader assessments, shaped by sustained US pressure since the early 2026 Venezuela operation.** The Trump administration has enforced an oil blockade, issued a national emergency declaration citing Cuban ties to Russia, China, and Iran, ramped up reconnaissance flights, deployed naval assets to the Caribbean, and sanctioned Cuban officials while indicting Raúl Castro. Senior figures including Defense Secretary Hegseth have issued direct warnings against Cuban arms acquisitions that could threaten Guantánamo Bay or the US homeland, and Pentagon planners have reviewed contingency options. Counterbalancing factors include direct US-Cuban military talks at the Guantánamo perimeter, resource demands from renewed Iran operations, Cuban denials of offensive intent, and the absence of strikes or major clashes to date. These dynamics keep probabilities fluid ahead of year-end resolution windows, with traders weighing escalation risks against diplomatic and logistical constraints.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВоенные действия США против Кубы с помощью...?
Военные действия США против Кубы с помощью...?
$7,394,187 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
31 декабря
14%
$7,394,187 Объем
31 декабря
$5,215,082 Объем
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.**US military action against Cuba remains a live but contested possibility in trader assessments, shaped by sustained US pressure since the early 2026 Venezuela operation.** The Trump administration has enforced an oil blockade, issued a national emergency declaration citing Cuban ties to Russia, China, and Iran, ramped up reconnaissance flights, deployed naval assets to the Caribbean, and sanctioned Cuban officials while indicting Raúl Castro. Senior figures including Defense Secretary Hegseth have issued direct warnings against Cuban arms acquisitions that could threaten Guantánamo Bay or the US homeland, and Pentagon planners have reviewed contingency options. Counterbalancing factors include direct US-Cuban military talks at the Guantánamo perimeter, resource demands from renewed Iran operations, Cuban denials of offensive intent, and the absence of strikes or major clashes to date. These dynamics keep probabilities fluid ahead of year-end resolution windows, with traders weighing escalation risks against diplomatic and logistical constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Открытие рынка: Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Объем
$7,394,187Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.**US military action against Cuba remains a live but contested possibility in trader assessments, shaped by sustained US pressure since the early 2026 Venezuela operation.** The Trump administration has enforced an oil blockade, issued a national emergency declaration citing Cuban ties to Russia, China, and Iran, ramped up reconnaissance flights, deployed naval assets to the Caribbean, and sanctioned Cuban officials while indicting Raúl Castro. Senior figures including Defense Secretary Hegseth have issued direct warnings against Cuban arms acquisitions that could threaten Guantánamo Bay or the US homeland, and Pentagon planners have reviewed contingency options. Counterbalancing factors include direct US-Cuban military talks at the Guantánamo perimeter, resource demands from renewed Iran operations, Cuban denials of offensive intent, and the absence of strikes or major clashes to date. These dynamics keep probabilities fluid ahead of year-end resolution windows, with traders weighing escalation risks against diplomatic and logistical constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Объем
$7,394,187Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...**US military action against Cuba remains a live but contested possibility in trader assessments, shaped by sustained US pressure since the early 2026 Venezuela operation.** The Trump administration has enforced an oil blockade, issued a national emergency declaration citing Cuban ties to Russia, China, and Iran, ramped up reconnaissance flights, deployed naval assets to the Caribbean, and sanctioned Cuban officials while indicting Raúl Castro. Senior figures including Defense Secretary Hegseth have issued direct warnings against Cuban arms acquisitions that could threaten Guantánamo Bay or the US homeland, and Pentagon planners have reviewed contingency options. Counterbalancing factors include direct US-Cuban military talks at the Guantánamo perimeter, resource demands from renewed Iran operations, Cuban denials of offensive intent, and the absence of strikes or major clashes to date. These dynamics keep probabilities fluid ahead of year-end resolution windows, with traders weighing escalation risks against diplomatic and logistical constraints.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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