Morena holds a commanding position in the Tabasco congressional race due to its consistent dominance in state-level polling and recent federal district results. Preliminary INE quick counts from the October 2026 elections show the Morena-led coalition securing all six federal districts in the state, consistent with earlier projections of 60%+ vote shares and seat majorities in the local legislature. High approval ratings for Governor Javier May, strong party affinity around 43%, and internal candidate processes favoring established Morena figures further consolidate support. Opposition parties including PRI, PVEM, PT, MC, and PAN trail significantly in both historical voting patterns and current surveys, limiting their path to competitive seat totals or outright victory.