Morena holds the strongest position in trader assessments for the Sonora state congress election, reflecting consistent leads in recent party preference surveys ahead of the 2027 vote. Polls from October 2026 show the party drawing 40% or higher support statewide, well ahead of PAN, PRI, and Movimiento Ciudadano, consistent with its current majority in the 33-seat legislature. Opposition coalitions have signaled efforts to consolidate votes through alliances, yet fragmented polling for smaller parties and independents has kept their implied probabilities lower. The market's 64.5% consensus on Morena incorporates these trends while leaving room for shifts from candidate announcements, alliance formations, or turnout patterns in key districts over the coming year.