Troy Downing’s commanding position in the MT-02 race reflects the district’s consistent Republican lean, his incumbency since 2025, and an unopposed June primary that preserved resources and momentum ahead of the November general election. The eastern Montana seat, encompassing Billings, Great Falls, and Helena, delivered Downing a 65.7% victory in 2024, and independent ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections classify it as Solid or Safe Republican. Brian Miller’s Democratic primary win has not produced comparable fundraising or polling traction, with limited general-election data showing no meaningful erosion of the incumbent’s edge. Trader consensus prices in the low odds of an upset because structural factors—partisan composition, candidate resources, and absence of recent competitive indicators—have remained stable through mid-September. Late developments such as a national political realignment, significant scandal, or unexpectedly high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though none have materialized to date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей MT-02
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей MT-02
$45,343 Объем
$45,343 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Трой Даунинг (Р)
95%
Брайан Миллер (Д)
5%
$45,343 Объем
$45,343 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Трой Даунинг (Р)
$26,444 Объем
95%
Брайан Миллер (Д)
$18,899 Объем
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Troy Downing’s commanding position in the MT-02 race reflects the district’s consistent Republican lean, his incumbency since 2025, and an unopposed June primary that preserved resources and momentum ahead of the November general election. The eastern Montana seat, encompassing Billings, Great Falls, and Helena, delivered Downing a 65.7% victory in 2024, and independent ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections classify it as Solid or Safe Republican. Brian Miller’s Democratic primary win has not produced comparable fundraising or polling traction, with limited general-election data showing no meaningful erosion of the incumbent’s edge. Trader consensus prices in the low odds of an upset because structural factors—partisan composition, candidate resources, and absence of recent competitive indicators—have remained stable through mid-September. Late developments such as a national political realignment, significant scandal, or unexpectedly high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though none have materialized to date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Объем
$45,343Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Troy Downing’s commanding position in the MT-02 race reflects the district’s consistent Republican lean, his incumbency since 2025, and an unopposed June primary that preserved resources and momentum ahead of the November general election. The eastern Montana seat, encompassing Billings, Great Falls, and Helena, delivered Downing a 65.7% victory in 2024, and independent ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections classify it as Solid or Safe Republican. Brian Miller’s Democratic primary win has not produced comparable fundraising or polling traction, with limited general-election data showing no meaningful erosion of the incumbent’s edge. Trader consensus prices in the low odds of an upset because structural factors—partisan composition, candidate resources, and absence of recent competitive indicators—have remained stable through mid-September. Late developments such as a national political realignment, significant scandal, or unexpectedly high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though none have materialized to date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$45,343Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Troy Downing’s commanding position in the MT-02 race reflects the district’s consistent Republican lean, his incumbency since 2025, and an unopposed June primary that preserved resources and momentum ahead of the November general election. The eastern Montana seat, encompassing Billings, Great Falls, and Helena, delivered Downing a 65.7% victory in 2024, and independent ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections classify it as Solid or Safe Republican. Brian Miller’s Democratic primary win has not produced comparable fundraising or polling traction, with limited general-election data showing no meaningful erosion of the incumbent’s edge. Trader consensus prices in the low odds of an upset because structural factors—partisan composition, candidate resources, and absence of recent competitive indicators—have remained stable through mid-September. Late developments such as a national political realignment, significant scandal, or unexpectedly high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though none have materialized to date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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