Elevated inflation readings and resilient economic growth underpin the 77.5% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point federal funds rate hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. September CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, with core measures at 2.6% and energy prices—particularly gasoline—driving much of the upside. The October 28 hold at the 3.75–4.00% range drew two dissents favoring immediate tightening, while the September dot plot showed a 4.1% median endpoint for 2026. Trader consensus, reflected in Polymarket pricing and fed funds futures, treats the hike as the baseline path amid persistent price pressures above the 2% target. Key near-term catalysts include the November 10 CPI release and October employment data, which could shift probabilities if they alter the inflation trajectory.