The inaugural Spanish Grand Prix at Madrid’s new Madring circuit drives the tight clustering around 25-30% implied probabilities for several midfield and lower-grid drivers, as teams lack real track data and rely heavily on simulations for the banked “La Monumental” curve and elevation changes. Recent form from Barcelona and Monza shows Mercedes and Ferrari strong on known layouts, yet 2026 power-unit and aerodynamic regulations alter energy deployment and cornering characteristics enough to compress gaps across the field. Championship leader Kimi Antonelli holds the highest single share on recent momentum, but the unknown setup demands and potential for simulation errors keep frontrunners like Norris, Verstappen, and Hamilton in single digits while elevating names such as Perez, Bortoleto, and Ocon in trader consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоGabriel Bortoleto 54%
Esteban Ocon 53%
Valtteri Bottas 53%
Oliver Bearman 53%
Gabriel Bortoleto
54%
Esteban Ocon
53%
Valtteri Bottas
53%
Oliver Bearman
53%
Arvid Lindblad
53%
Liam Lawson
53%
Fernando Alonso
52%
Carlos Sainz Jr.
52%
Nico Hulkenberg
52%
Sergio Perez
50%
Pierre Gasly
48%
Lance Stroll
45%
Alexander Albon
43%
Franco Colapinto
41%
Kimi Antonelli
32%
Lando Norris
16%
George Russell
12%
Max Verstappen
12%
Charles Leclerc
11%
Lewis Hamilton
11%
Oscar Piastri
8%
Isack Hadjar
8%
Gabriel Bortoleto 54%
Esteban Ocon 53%
Valtteri Bottas 53%
Oliver Bearman 53%
Gabriel Bortoleto
54%
Esteban Ocon
53%
Valtteri Bottas
53%
Oliver Bearman
53%
Arvid Lindblad
53%
Liam Lawson
53%
Fernando Alonso
52%
Carlos Sainz Jr.
52%
Nico Hulkenberg
52%
Sergio Perez
50%
Pierre Gasly
48%
Lance Stroll
45%
Alexander Albon
43%
Franco Colapinto
41%
Kimi Antonelli
32%
Lando Norris
16%
George Russell
12%
Max Verstappen
12%
Charles Leclerc
11%
Lewis Hamilton
11%
Oscar Piastri
8%
Isack Hadjar
8%
If the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Sep 19, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a driver sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that driver.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Открытие рынка: Aug 15, 2026, 7:30 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...If the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Sep 19, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a driver sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that driver.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The inaugural Spanish Grand Prix at Madrid’s new Madring circuit drives the tight clustering around 25-30% implied probabilities for several midfield and lower-grid drivers, as teams lack real track data and rely heavily on simulations for the banked “La Monumental” curve and elevation changes. Recent form from Barcelona and Monza shows Mercedes and Ferrari strong on known layouts, yet 2026 power-unit and aerodynamic regulations alter energy deployment and cornering characteristics enough to compress gaps across the field. Championship leader Kimi Antonelli holds the highest single share on recent momentum, but the unknown setup demands and potential for simulation errors keep frontrunners like Norris, Verstappen, and Hamilton in single digits while elevating names such as Perez, Bortoleto, and Ocon in trader consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено



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