Traders assign a 99.3% implied probability that the European Union will not dissolve before 2027, reflecting the union’s entrenched legal architecture, treaty requirements for unanimous member consent on fundamental changes, and deep economic interdependence among its 27 states. No active withdrawal processes, referendums, or institutional mechanisms capable of triggering dissolution exist in the narrow remaining window. Recent stability in EU governance, including routine parliamentary sessions and ongoing policy coordination on trade and security, reinforces this consensus. While a sudden external shock such as a major geopolitical crisis or coordinated exit campaign could theoretically accelerate discussions, historical precedent and procedural timelines indicate such developments would still require years to produce formal dissolution rather than months.