**Diddy's ongoing federal sentence and projected 2028 release date anchor trader sentiment against any 2026 exit.** Convicted in July 2025 on two Mann Act counts of transporting individuals for prostitution following a high-profile trial, he received a 50-month term in October 2025 and is serving it at FCI Fort Dix. Federal Bureau of Prisons records have repeatedly adjusted his out-date—most recently to early February 2028—reflecting good-conduct credits, RDAP participation, and other time reductions, yet still place full release well after 2026. Ongoing appeals and occasional setbacks, such as a mid-2026 prison altercation that temporarily pushed the date back, have not altered the core timeline enough to create realistic 2026 scenarios. As of September 2026, no verified developments—such as a successful appeal reversal, presidential pardon, or extraordinary early-release ruling—have emerged to shift the market-implied odds meaningfully. Traders therefore view the 84.2% probability on “No” as reflecting the straightforward arithmetic of the sentence length and standard federal prison mechanics, with only low-probability wildcard events capable of changing the outcome before year-end.