Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data show roughly half the nation in moderate or worse drought as of late September 2026, with persistent conditions across the upper Midwest, Northern Plains, and parts of the South where most hog inventory is concentrated in Iowa, Minnesota, and North Carolina. Recent heavy rainfall from frontal systems has eased deficits in portions of the Corn Belt and Southern Plains, though drier, warmer patterns are forecast to return early October and may limit further improvement before the week of October 6. El Niño-driven outlooks favor additional relief in the southern and central regions over coming months, yet short-term model consensus and local soil-moisture variability create genuine uncertainty around the precise share of hogs falling into D1+ categories. The weekly USDA Ag in Drought report, derived from the latest USDM map, will determine resolution.