The absence of an announced Supreme Court vacancy as of September 2026 keeps implied probabilities clustered among multiple Trump-appointed appeals court judges, with Senate confirmation dynamics and midterm uncertainty limiting separation among contenders. White House short-list discussions have centered on figures such as James Ho, Andrew Oldham, Gregory Katsas, Steven Menashi, and Neomi Rao, all elevated during the first term and viewed as aligned with originalist priorities on issues including administrative law and federalism. Recent Senate focus on confirming lower-court nominees before the November 3 midterms, alongside President Trump's public criticism of prior appointees following the mail-in ballot ruling, underscores the premium traders place on perceived loyalty and confirmability. A vacancy announcement, shifts in Republican Senate margins, or explicit White House signals could quickly elevate specific candidates above the field.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuem o administrador Trump nomeará como Juiz ESCOTO?
Quem o administrador Trump nomeará como Juiz ESCOTO?
James Ho 19%
Andrew Oldham 13%
Gregory Katsas 11.2%
Steven Menashi 9.2%
NOVO
NOVO
19 jan 2029
James Ho
19%
Andrew Oldham
13%
Gregory Katsas
11%
Steven Menashi
9%
Patrick Bumatay
9%
Amul Thapar
8%
Neomi Rao
7%
Aileen Cannon
6%
Mike Lee
6%
John Sauer
4%
Ted Cruz
13%
James Ho 19%
Andrew Oldham 13%
Gregory Katsas 11.2%
Steven Menashi 9.2%
NOVO
NOVO
19 jan 2029
James Ho
$645 Vol.
19%
Andrew Oldham
$638 Vol.
13%
Gregory Katsas
$175 Vol.
11%
Steven Menashi
$105 Vol.
9%
Patrick Bumatay
$1,541 Vol.
9%
Amul Thapar
$944 Vol.
8%
Neomi Rao
$109 Vol.
7%
Aileen Cannon
$326 Vol.
6%
Mike Lee
$125 Vol.
6%
John Sauer
$121 Vol.
4%
Ted Cruz
$160 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The absence of an announced Supreme Court vacancy as of September 2026 keeps implied probabilities clustered among multiple Trump-appointed appeals court judges, with Senate confirmation dynamics and midterm uncertainty limiting separation among contenders. White House short-list discussions have centered on figures such as James Ho, Andrew Oldham, Gregory Katsas, Steven Menashi, and Neomi Rao, all elevated during the first term and viewed as aligned with originalist priorities on issues including administrative law and federalism. Recent Senate focus on confirming lower-court nominees before the November 3 midterms, alongside President Trump's public criticism of prior appointees following the mail-in ballot ruling, underscores the premium traders place on perceived loyalty and confirmability. A vacancy announcement, shifts in Republican Senate margins, or explicit White House signals could quickly elevate specific candidates above the field.
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$4,888Data de Término
19 jan 2029Mercado Aberto
Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The absence of an announced Supreme Court vacancy as of September 2026 keeps implied probabilities clustered among multiple Trump-appointed appeals court judges, with Senate confirmation dynamics and midterm uncertainty limiting separation among contenders. White House short-list discussions have centered on figures such as James Ho, Andrew Oldham, Gregory Katsas, Steven Menashi, and Neomi Rao, all elevated during the first term and viewed as aligned with originalist priorities on issues including administrative law and federalism. Recent Senate focus on confirming lower-court nominees before the November 3 midterms, alongside President Trump's public criticism of prior appointees following the mail-in ballot ruling, underscores the premium traders place on perceived loyalty and confirmability. A vacancy announcement, shifts in Republican Senate margins, or explicit White House signals could quickly elevate specific candidates above the field.
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,888Data de Término
19 jan 2029Mercado Aberto
Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The absence of an announced Supreme Court vacancy as of September 2026 keeps implied probabilities clustered among multiple Trump-appointed appeals court judges, with Senate confirmation dynamics and midterm uncertainty limiting separation among contenders. White House short-list discussions have centered on figures such as James Ho, Andrew Oldham, Gregory Katsas, Steven Menashi, and Neomi Rao, all elevated during the first term and viewed as aligned with originalist priorities on issues including administrative law and federalism. Recent Senate focus on confirming lower-court nominees before the November 3 midterms, alongside President Trump's public criticism of prior appointees following the mail-in ballot ruling, underscores the premium traders place on perceived loyalty and confirmability. A vacancy announcement, shifts in Republican Senate margins, or explicit White House signals could quickly elevate specific candidates above the field.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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