The Supreme Court’s June 30 grant of certiorari in consolidated challenges to assault-weapons restrictions in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut has driven trader expectations that the bans will fall. With oral arguments set for the October term and a decision expected by mid-2027, the 6-3 conservative majority—bolstered by statements from Justices Kavanaugh, Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch signaling that AR-15-style rifles qualify as arms in common use—appears poised to extend Bruen-era protections. The Trump Justice Department’s September amicus brief urging invalidation further aligns with that trajectory. While lower courts upheld the measures and roughly a dozen states maintain similar laws, the combination of the Court’s recent gun-rights record and the scale of civilian ownership makes reversal the consensus outcome among traders.