**Factional tensions within Iran's leadership have shaped trader sentiment on coup attempt markets.** Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered a leadership transition, hardline factions have accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and associates of a "soft coup." They cite the sidelining of radicals from key parliamentary roles, expanded influence of the Supreme National Security Council, and negotiations leading to a U.S. truce agreement while Mojtaba Khamenei remains largely absent from public view. These accusations intensified around Ali Khamenei's funeral in July 2026, with lawmakers like Mahmoud Nabavian publicly warning of an unfolding political coup. Earlier large-scale protests in late 2025 and early 2026, met with a lethal crackdown, and subsequent regime survival after external strikes further highlighted internal divisions. However, no coordinated military or security force effort to unlawfully seize power has been credibly reported by independent sources, keeping implied probabilities low. Upcoming Assembly of Experts deliberations on succession and any shifts in IRGC positioning could influence future assessments.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$2,126,958 Vol.
31 dez 2026
31 de dezembro
14%
$2,126,958 Vol.
31 de dezembro
$85,732 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Factional tensions within Iran's leadership have shaped trader sentiment on coup attempt markets.** Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered a leadership transition, hardline factions have accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and associates of a "soft coup." They cite the sidelining of radicals from key parliamentary roles, expanded influence of the Supreme National Security Council, and negotiations leading to a U.S. truce agreement while Mojtaba Khamenei remains largely absent from public view.
These accusations intensified around Ali Khamenei's funeral in July 2026, with lawmakers like Mahmoud Nabavian publicly warning of an unfolding political coup. Earlier large-scale protests in late 2025 and early 2026, met with a lethal crackdown, and subsequent regime survival after external strikes further highlighted internal divisions. However, no coordinated military or security force effort to unlawfully seize power has been credibly reported by independent sources, keeping implied probabilities low. Upcoming Assembly of Experts deliberations on succession and any shifts in IRGC positioning could influence future assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,126,958Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Factional tensions within Iran's leadership have shaped trader sentiment on coup attempt markets.** Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered a leadership transition, hardline factions have accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and associates of a "soft coup." They cite the sidelining of radicals from key parliamentary roles, expanded influence of the Supreme National Security Council, and negotiations leading to a U.S. truce agreement while Mojtaba Khamenei remains largely absent from public view.
These accusations intensified around Ali Khamenei's funeral in July 2026, with lawmakers like Mahmoud Nabavian publicly warning of an unfolding political coup. Earlier large-scale protests in late 2025 and early 2026, met with a lethal crackdown, and subsequent regime survival after external strikes further highlighted internal divisions. However, no coordinated military or security force effort to unlawfully seize power has been credibly reported by independent sources, keeping implied probabilities low. Upcoming Assembly of Experts deliberations on succession and any shifts in IRGC positioning could influence future assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,126,958Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Factional tensions within Iran's leadership have shaped trader sentiment on coup attempt markets.** Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered a leadership transition, hardline factions have accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and associates of a "soft coup." They cite the sidelining of radicals from key parliamentary roles, expanded influence of the Supreme National Security Council, and negotiations leading to a U.S. truce agreement while Mojtaba Khamenei remains largely absent from public view. These accusations intensified around Ali Khamenei's funeral in July 2026, with lawmakers like Mahmoud Nabavian publicly warning of an unfolding political coup. Earlier large-scale protests in late 2025 and early 2026, met with a lethal crackdown, and subsequent regime survival after external strikes further highlighted internal divisions. However, no coordinated military or security force effort to unlawfully seize power has been credibly reported by independent sources, keeping implied probabilities low. Upcoming Assembly of Experts deliberations on succession and any shifts in IRGC positioning could influence future assessments.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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