Iran’s recent public warnings have shaped trader views on the low likelihood of actual damage to undersea cables. On October 11–13, 2026, Supreme National Security Council head Mohsen Rezaei stated that cables, data centers, and AI facilities in the Gulf could become targets if fighting with the United States resumes amid stalled Strait of Hormuz talks. Linked reporting from Tasnim highlighted cable routes through the strait as potential pressure points, while hard-line voices endorsed using them for leverage. No confirmed sabotage has occurred, and prior Red Sea disruptions were largely attributed to shipping incidents rather than direct attacks. Markets currently price the October 31 resolution near 17% and December 31 near 14%, reflecting the high operational, diplomatic, and self-inflicted economic risks that make escalation improbable in the near term absent renewed major conflict.