The primary driver behind the 86.3% market-implied probability of no engagement is the documented unraveling of Cardi B and Stefon Diggs’ relationship earlier in 2026. Following the birth of their son in late 2025, the pair faced breakup speculation in February after mutual Instagram unfollows and Cardi’s onstage comments at her Little Miss Drama Tour stops. While limited reconciliation sightings occurred around Mother’s Day, Diggs’ earlier “on the agenda” remarks about marriage never progressed publicly. By mid-year, Cardi’s song lyrics and focus on touring signaled a shift, with reports confirming she had pulled back amid trust issues. With three months left in 2026 and no verified steps toward commitment, traders see the window for resolution as effectively closed.