The Supreme Court’s June 2026 decision to grant certiorari in challenges to AR-15-style rifle bans in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut stands as the primary driver behind traders assigning an 80.5% implied probability that the Court will invalidate such restrictions. A 6-3 conservative majority has repeatedly expanded Second Amendment protections under the Bruen framework, and four justices previously signaled strong skepticism toward these laws, viewing the rifles as in common use for lawful purposes. Oral arguments are scheduled for the fall term, with a ruling expected by mid-2027; any shift in the Court’s composition or unexpected alignment on historical tradition could still alter the outcome, though recent precedent favors broader protections for semiautomatic firearms.