Saudi Arabia’s provision of air support for Yemeni government forces in Operation Dawn of Yemen, launched in early October 2026 to reverse Houthi gains along the Red Sea coast and Bab al-Mandeb Strait, has intensified cross-border exchanges without committing regular Saudi ground units toward Sanaa. Houthi missile and drone strikes on Saudi airports and infrastructure in early October prompted additional Saudi-led coalition airstrikes on Houthi positions, including in the capital, yet the counteroffensive remains focused on coastal and central fronts with Yemeni troops leading advances. Market pricing reflects the narrow definition requiring verified entry by Saudi regular armed forces into specific Sanaa districts, consistent with Riyadh’s long-standing preference for proxy operations and air power over direct ground involvement in the Houthi-held capital. Scheduled coalition operations and any shift in ground strategy could influence near-term probabilities through year-end.