OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra release and executive commentary have not produced the formal announcement required to resolve the market in favor of “Yes.” President Greg Brockman described the model in early September 2026 as potentially marking the start of the AGI era and stated he personally believes the threshold has been reached, yet CEO Sam Altman has characterized AGI as an ill-defined or marketing term while noting only an internal system may qualify by year-end. Trader consensus at 76.5% for “No” reflects OpenAI’s consistent preference for internal milestones over declarative public statements aligned with its charter definition of outperforming humans on most economically valuable work. Key near-term catalysts include any year-end internal capability claims or additional model releases that could shift sentiment.