Incumbent Democratic Rep. Josh Riley holds a commanding position in the NY-19 House race due to his narrow 2024 victory that flipped the seat, superior fundraising exceeding $4.8 million compared to challenger Peter Oberacker’s roughly $1.2 million, and the district’s recent leftward shift. Forecasters rate the race as Lean or Likely Democratic. Republican support has eroded sharply, with the Congressional Leadership Fund withdrawing millions in planned ad reservations and the NRCC removing Oberacker from priority lists after controversies including a resurfaced 2015 social media post. These factors have shaped trader consensus around Riley’s strong re-election prospects ahead of the November 3 general election. Oberacker secured the GOP nomination in June but faces structural headwinds that could only shift with major late developments such as national political realignments or unforeseen candidate events.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNY-19 House Election Winner
NY-19 House Election Winner
$21,045 Wol.
$21,045 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Josh Riley (D)
94%
Peter Oberacker (R)
5%
$21,045 Wol.
$21,045 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Josh Riley (D)
$10,202 Wol.
94%
Peter Oberacker (R)
$10,843 Wol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Rep. Josh Riley holds a commanding position in the NY-19 House race due to his narrow 2024 victory that flipped the seat, superior fundraising exceeding $4.8 million compared to challenger Peter Oberacker’s roughly $1.2 million, and the district’s recent leftward shift. Forecasters rate the race as Lean or Likely Democratic. Republican support has eroded sharply, with the Congressional Leadership Fund withdrawing millions in planned ad reservations and the NRCC removing Oberacker from priority lists after controversies including a resurfaced 2015 social media post. These factors have shaped trader consensus around Riley’s strong re-election prospects ahead of the November 3 general election. Oberacker secured the GOP nomination in June but faces structural headwinds that could only shift with major late developments such as national political realignments or unforeseen candidate events.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Wolumen
$21,045Data zakończenia
Nov 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Rep. Josh Riley holds a commanding position in the NY-19 House race due to his narrow 2024 victory that flipped the seat, superior fundraising exceeding $4.8 million compared to challenger Peter Oberacker’s roughly $1.2 million, and the district’s recent leftward shift. Forecasters rate the race as Lean or Likely Democratic. Republican support has eroded sharply, with the Congressional Leadership Fund withdrawing millions in planned ad reservations and the NRCC removing Oberacker from priority lists after controversies including a resurfaced 2015 social media post. These factors have shaped trader consensus around Riley’s strong re-election prospects ahead of the November 3 general election. Oberacker secured the GOP nomination in June but faces structural headwinds that could only shift with major late developments such as national political realignments or unforeseen candidate events.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$21,045Data zakończenia
Nov 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Rep. Josh Riley holds a commanding position in the NY-19 House race due to his narrow 2024 victory that flipped the seat, superior fundraising exceeding $4.8 million compared to challenger Peter Oberacker’s roughly $1.2 million, and the district’s recent leftward shift. Forecasters rate the race as Lean or Likely Democratic. Republican support has eroded sharply, with the Congressional Leadership Fund withdrawing millions in planned ad reservations and the NRCC removing Oberacker from priority lists after controversies including a resurfaced 2015 social media post. These factors have shaped trader consensus around Riley’s strong re-election prospects ahead of the November 3 general election. Oberacker secured the GOP nomination in June but faces structural headwinds that could only shift with major late developments such as national political realignments or unforeseen candidate events.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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