Łukasz Gibała leads the Kraków mayoral race at 79.5% implied probability due to consistent polling advantages ahead of the September 27 first round and possible October 11 runoff. Recent surveys, including OGB for Polsat News, show him at 39% in the opening round—well ahead of Monika Piątkowska (KO- and PSL-backed) at 23%—with projections of a 62-38 runoff win. Gibała, running as an independent via the local Kraków dla Mieszkańców committee, benefits from high name recognition after finishing second in 2024 and positioning as an alternative to national party influence following the May recall of the prior mayor. Lower probabilities for Piątkowska (16.5%), Michał Drewnicki (PiS, 4.5%), and others reflect fragmented opposition support and undecided voters, though the tight timeline to the first round leaves room for late shifts in turnout or preferences.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoŁukasz Gibała 79%
Monika Piątkowska 16%
Michał Drewnicki 4.8%
Grażyna Zofia Świat 2.7%
$26,853 Wol.
$26,853 Wol.
Łukasz Gibała
79%
Monika Piątkowska
16%
Michał Drewnicki
5%
Grażyna Zofia Świat
3%
Daria Gosek-Popiołek
1%
Marianna Schreiber
<1%
Jan Hoffman
<1%
Marian Banaś
<1%
Rafał Komarewicz
<1%
Aleksandra Owca
<1%
Rafał Sonik
<1%
Bartosz Bocheńczak
<1%
Sławomir Pietrzyk
<1%
Łukasz Wantuch
<1%
Marta Ratuszyńska
<1%
Paweł Śliz
<1%
Michał Klimek
<1%
Łukasz Gibała 79%
Monika Piątkowska 16%
Michał Drewnicki 4.8%
Grażyna Zofia Świat 2.7%
$26,853 Wol.
$26,853 Wol.
Łukasz Gibała
79%
Monika Piątkowska
16%
Michał Drewnicki
5%
Grażyna Zofia Świat
3%
Daria Gosek-Popiołek
1%
Marianna Schreiber
<1%
Jan Hoffman
<1%
Marian Banaś
<1%
Rafał Komarewicz
<1%
Aleksandra Owca
<1%
Rafał Sonik
<1%
Bartosz Bocheńczak
<1%
Sławomir Pietrzyk
<1%
Łukasz Wantuch
<1%
Marta Ratuszyńska
<1%
Paweł Śliz
<1%
Michał Klimek
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Kraków as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Kraków, including its election office and Municipal Electoral Commission.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 6, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Kraków as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Kraków, including its election office and Municipal Electoral Commission.
Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Łukasz Gibała leads the Kraków mayoral race at 79.5% implied probability due to consistent polling advantages ahead of the September 27 first round and possible October 11 runoff. Recent surveys, including OGB for Polsat News, show him at 39% in the opening round—well ahead of Monika Piątkowska (KO- and PSL-backed) at 23%—with projections of a 62-38 runoff win. Gibała, running as an independent via the local Kraków dla Mieszkańców committee, benefits from high name recognition after finishing second in 2024 and positioning as an alternative to national party influence following the May recall of the prior mayor. Lower probabilities for Piątkowska (16.5%), Michał Drewnicki (PiS, 4.5%), and others reflect fragmented opposition support and undecided voters, though the tight timeline to the first round leaves room for late shifts in turnout or preferences.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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