Illinois's strong Democratic lean and the open-seat dynamics following Dick Durbin's retirement underpin trader consensus favoring Juliana Stratton. The state delivered double-digit Democratic margins in recent statewide contests, including Kamala Harris's 2024 performance, while Republicans have not won an Illinois Senate race since 2010. Stratton secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with 40.4% amid support from Governor JB Pritzker and the Cook County organization, outpacing fundraising and spending by her Republican opponent. Don Tracy, the former state party chair who won his primary with 40%, faces structural headwinds in a Solid Democratic environment. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected national shift could narrow the gap, though no such catalysts have emerged ahead of the November 3 general election.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIllinois Senate Election Winner
Illinois Senate Election Winner
$32,370 Wol.
$32,370 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Juliana Stratton (D)
96%
Don Tracy (R)
4%
$32,370 Wol.
$32,370 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Juliana Stratton (D)
$16,811 Wol.
96%
Don Tracy (R)
$15,559 Wol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Illinois's strong Democratic lean and the open-seat dynamics following Dick Durbin's retirement underpin trader consensus favoring Juliana Stratton. The state delivered double-digit Democratic margins in recent statewide contests, including Kamala Harris's 2024 performance, while Republicans have not won an Illinois Senate race since 2010. Stratton secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with 40.4% amid support from Governor JB Pritzker and the Cook County organization, outpacing fundraising and spending by her Republican opponent. Don Tracy, the former state party chair who won his primary with 40%, faces structural headwinds in a Solid Democratic environment. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected national shift could narrow the gap, though no such catalysts have emerged ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rynek otwarty: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Wolumen
$32,370Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Illinois's strong Democratic lean and the open-seat dynamics following Dick Durbin's retirement underpin trader consensus favoring Juliana Stratton. The state delivered double-digit Democratic margins in recent statewide contests, including Kamala Harris's 2024 performance, while Republicans have not won an Illinois Senate race since 2010. Stratton secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with 40.4% amid support from Governor JB Pritzker and the Cook County organization, outpacing fundraising and spending by her Republican opponent. Don Tracy, the former state party chair who won his primary with 40%, faces structural headwinds in a Solid Democratic environment. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected national shift could narrow the gap, though no such catalysts have emerged ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Wolumen
$32,370Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Illinois's strong Democratic lean and the open-seat dynamics following Dick Durbin's retirement underpin trader consensus favoring Juliana Stratton. The state delivered double-digit Democratic margins in recent statewide contests, including Kamala Harris's 2024 performance, while Republicans have not won an Illinois Senate race since 2010. Stratton secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with 40.4% amid support from Governor JB Pritzker and the Cook County organization, outpacing fundraising and spending by her Republican opponent. Don Tracy, the former state party chair who won his primary with 40%, faces structural headwinds in a Solid Democratic environment. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected national shift could narrow the gap, though no such catalysts have emerged ahead of the November 3 general election.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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