Recent Cabinet-level exits, including the firings of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi plus the resignations of Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, have established a pattern of elevated turnover in the second Trump administration. Broader data from the Partnership for Public Service shows non-Senate-confirmed appointee departures running at record rates across multiple departments, driven by policy execution demands, performance expectations, and agency restructuring tied to immigration enforcement and other priorities. With the market now priced tightly between five and six additional departures by year-end, traders appear to weigh continued White House pressure on remaining officials against the possibility of stabilization ahead of the November midterms. Historical precedent for second-term turnover and the slow pace of recent Senate-confirmed replacements keep lower and higher outcomes in play, leaving the implied probabilities clustered without a decisive shift.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?
How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?
5 37.8%
1 28%
4 21.5%
2 20.5%
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
0
3%
1
21%
2
20%
3
13%
4
22%
5
38%
6
33%
7+
14%
5 37.8%
1 28%
4 21.5%
2 20.5%
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
0
$5,052 Wol.
3%
1
$610 Wol.
21%
2
$425 Wol.
20%
3
$261 Wol.
13%
4
$321 Wol.
22%
5
$358 Wol.
38%
6
$476 Wol.
33%
7+
$2,058 Wol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.Recent Cabinet-level exits, including the firings of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi plus the resignations of Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, have established a pattern of elevated turnover in the second Trump administration. Broader data from the Partnership for Public Service shows non-Senate-confirmed appointee departures running at record rates across multiple departments, driven by policy execution demands, performance expectations, and agency restructuring tied to immigration enforcement and other priorities.
With the market now priced tightly between five and six additional departures by year-end, traders appear to weigh continued White House pressure on remaining officials against the possibility of stabilization ahead of the November midterms. Historical precedent for second-term turnover and the slow pace of recent Senate-confirmed replacements keep lower and higher outcomes in play, leaving the implied probabilities clustered without a decisive shift.
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET
Wolumen
$9,561Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.Recent Cabinet-level exits, including the firings of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi plus the resignations of Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, have established a pattern of elevated turnover in the second Trump administration. Broader data from the Partnership for Public Service shows non-Senate-confirmed appointee departures running at record rates across multiple departments, driven by policy execution demands, performance expectations, and agency restructuring tied to immigration enforcement and other priorities.
With the market now priced tightly between five and six additional departures by year-end, traders appear to weigh continued White House pressure on remaining officials against the possibility of stabilization ahead of the November midterms. Historical precedent for second-term turnover and the slow pace of recent Senate-confirmed replacements keep lower and higher outcomes in play, leaving the implied probabilities clustered without a decisive shift.
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
Wolumen
$9,561Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent Cabinet-level exits, including the firings of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi plus the resignations of Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, have established a pattern of elevated turnover in the second Trump administration. Broader data from the Partnership for Public Service shows non-Senate-confirmed appointee departures running at record rates across multiple departments, driven by policy execution demands, performance expectations, and agency restructuring tied to immigration enforcement and other priorities. With the market now priced tightly between five and six additional departures by year-end, traders appear to weigh continued White House pressure on remaining officials against the possibility of stabilization ahead of the November midterms. Historical precedent for second-term turnover and the slow pace of recent Senate-confirmed replacements keep lower and higher outcomes in play, leaving the implied probabilities clustered without a decisive shift.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania