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Gospodarka·Stawki Fed

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

icon for How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Gospodarka·Stawki Fed

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

$25,443 Wol.

Dec 30, 2026
Polymarket

$25,443 Wol.

Polymarket

Below 4.50%

$1,495 Wol.

73%

Below 4.45%

$2,939 Wol.

65%

Below 4.40%

$1,894 Wol.

43%

Below 4.35%

$3,247 Wol.

35%

Below 4.30%

$2,642 Wol.

21%

Below 4.25%

$834 Wol.

19%

Below 4.20%

$4,098 Wol.

11%

Below 4.10%

$6,694 Wol.

12%

Below 4.00%

$1,600 Wol.

9%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent data show the 5-year Treasury yield trading near 4.86% as of September 20, 2026, up sharply from year-ago levels near 3.7% amid sticky core inflation, elevated oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions, and a repricing of Federal Reserve policy expectations toward fewer cuts or modest hikes through year-end. Real yields have driven most of the backup, reflecting resilient growth, heavy Treasury supply from fiscal deficits, and a higher term premium, while breakeven inflation measures have remained relatively contained. Market-implied odds currently embed limited near-term easing, with the path sensitive to upcoming CPI releases, FOMC communications, and any de-escalation in energy markets that could compress yields before year-end resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Wolumen
$25,443
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent data show the 5-year Treasury yield trading near 4.86% as of September 20, 2026, up sharply from year-ago levels near 3.7% amid sticky core inflation, elevated oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions, and a repricing of Federal Reserve policy expectations toward fewer cuts or modest hikes through year-end. Real yields have driven most of the backup, reflecting resilient growth, heavy Treasury supply from fiscal deficits, and a higher term premium, while breakeven inflation measures have remained relatively contained. Market-implied odds currently embed limited near-term easing, with the path sensitive to upcoming CPI releases, FOMC communications, and any de-escalation in energy markets that could compress yields before year-end resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Wolumen
$25,443
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x65070BE91...

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"How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 9 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Below 4.50%" z 73%, za nim "Below 4.45%" z 65%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 73¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 73% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" wygenerował $25.4K łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Sep 2, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?", przeglądaj 9 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" jest "Below 4.50%" z 73%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 73% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Below 4.45%" z 65%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.