A strengthening super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperatures already at +2.0°C and a 75% chance of exceeding prior historic peaks by late 2026, stands as the dominant driver shaping early-season snowfall odds. NOAA outlooks favor above-normal temperatures across the northern and central United States through fall and winter, which historically correlates with delayed first measurable snow (≥0.1 inch) in Midwest and Northeast cities while favoring wetter patterns farther south. Lake-effect and cold-air outbreak timing remain key variables, with model consensus still evolving. Updated NOAA Climate Prediction Center seasonal forecasts and weekly ENSO monitoring releases through October will provide the next data points likely to shift trader assessments of earliest snow dates.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFirst snow of the 2026 season
$12,111 Wol.

Buffalo, NY by October 31
66%

Denver, CO by October 31
79%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
55%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
47%

Boston, MA by November 15
70%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
76%

Chicago, IL by November 15
79%

Denver, CO by November 15
63%

Detroit, MI by November 15
83%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
91%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
54%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
89%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
63%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
79%

Boston, MA by November 30
84%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
63%

Chicago, IL by November 30
80%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
83%

Dallas, TX by November 30
29%

Denver, CO by November 30
99%

Detroit, MI by November 30
86%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
98%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
72%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
94%

Nashville, TN by November 30
29%

New York City, NY by November 30
68%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
89%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
77%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
85%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
75%

Washington, DC by November 30
43%
$12,111 Wol.

Buffalo, NY by October 31
66%

Denver, CO by October 31
79%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
55%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
47%

Boston, MA by November 15
70%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
76%

Chicago, IL by November 15
79%

Denver, CO by November 15
63%

Detroit, MI by November 15
83%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
91%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
54%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
89%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
63%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
79%

Boston, MA by November 30
84%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
63%

Chicago, IL by November 30
80%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
83%

Dallas, TX by November 30
29%

Denver, CO by November 30
99%

Detroit, MI by November 30
86%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
98%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
72%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
94%

Nashville, TN by November 30
29%

New York City, NY by November 30
68%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
89%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
77%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
85%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
75%

Washington, DC by November 30
43%
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KIND (midnight to midnight local time, America/Indiana/Indianapolis).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KIND, issued as product CLIIND. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIIND.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 2, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Rozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KIND (midnight to midnight local time, America/Indiana/Indianapolis).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KIND, issued as product CLIIND. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIIND.
Rozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...A strengthening super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperatures already at +2.0°C and a 75% chance of exceeding prior historic peaks by late 2026, stands as the dominant driver shaping early-season snowfall odds. NOAA outlooks favor above-normal temperatures across the northern and central United States through fall and winter, which historically correlates with delayed first measurable snow (≥0.1 inch) in Midwest and Northeast cities while favoring wetter patterns farther south. Lake-effect and cold-air outbreak timing remain key variables, with model consensus still evolving. Updated NOAA Climate Prediction Center seasonal forecasts and weekly ENSO monitoring releases through October will provide the next data points likely to shift trader assessments of earliest snow dates.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano


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