Record-high diesel prices above $6.50 per gallon, driven by supply disruptions from the US-Iran conflict and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, have intensified pressure on the Trump administration ahead of November midterms. Low US distillate inventories and calls from farm-state Republicans for export restrictions to prioritize domestic supply prompted President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to signal openness to a temporary ban or quota. However, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and a White House statement rejected a flat prohibition, favoring voluntary industry cooperation instead, creating internal divisions. These mixed signals, combined with industry warnings of reduced refinery runs and higher gasoline or jet fuel prices, shape trader assessments of whether an official announcement occurs by late September or October.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$55,164 Vol.
2026/09/30
9月30日
7%
10月31日
22%
$55,164 Vol.
9月30日
$41,708 Vol.
7%
10月31日
$13,456 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, the White House, a Cabinet member, an agency or department legally authorized to take such action, or an authorized representative thereof, publicly and officially announces a ban on the export of diesel from the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, a "ban on the export of diesel" means a prohibition on the exportation of diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil) from the United States, whether imposed on all exports or on substantially all exports. A restriction, quota, tariff, licensing requirement, destination-specific ban, or other limitation short of an export prohibition will not qualify unless it operates as a general prohibition on diesel exports. A prohibition may qualify whether it is temporary or permanent, provided the announcement clearly communicates a prohibition on diesel exports.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the U.S. government's present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a ban on the export of diesel.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a ban on the export of diesel. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a ban, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the ban by name, provided the substance of a prohibition on diesel exports is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
An announcement by the U.S. government that it accepts or agrees to an agreement, framework, or roadmap that includes a commitment to ban diesel exports qualifies only if (i) all parties whose acceptance is required for the agreement to take effect have accepted the agreement, or (ii) the announcement independently communicates the ban as a present and decided position of the United States, not contingent on acceptance by any other party.
The following do not qualify as official announcements:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the U.S. government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement such a ban;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of such a ban rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a ban on diesel exports is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the U.S. government or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Record-high diesel prices above $6.50 per gallon, driven by supply disruptions from the US-Iran conflict and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, have intensified pressure on the Trump administration ahead of November midterms. Low US distillate inventories and calls from farm-state Republicans for export restrictions to prioritize domestic supply prompted President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to signal openness to a temporary ban or quota. However, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and a White House statement rejected a flat prohibition, favoring voluntary industry cooperation instead, creating internal divisions. These mixed signals, combined with industry warnings of reduced refinery runs and higher gasoline or jet fuel prices, shape trader assessments of whether an official announcement occurs by late September or October.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, the White House, a Cabinet member, an agency or department legally authorized to take such action, or an authorized representative thereof, publicly and officially announces a ban on the export of diesel from the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, a "ban on the export of diesel" means a prohibition on the exportation of diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil) from the United States, whether imposed on all exports or on substantially all exports. A restriction, quota, tariff, licensing requirement, destination-specific ban, or other limitation short of an export prohibition will not qualify unless it operates as a general prohibition on diesel exports. A prohibition may qualify whether it is temporary or permanent, provided the announcement clearly communicates a prohibition on diesel exports.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the U.S. government's present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a ban on the export of diesel.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a ban on the export of diesel. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a ban, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the ban by name, provided the substance of a prohibition on diesel exports is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
An announcement by the U.S. government that it accepts or agrees to an agreement, framework, or roadmap that includes a commitment to ban diesel exports qualifies only if (i) all parties whose acceptance is required for the agreement to take effect have accepted the agreement, or (ii) the announcement independently communicates the ban as a present and decided position of the United States, not contingent on acceptance by any other party.
The following do not qualify as official announcements:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the U.S. government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement such a ban;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of such a ban rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a ban on diesel exports is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the U.S. government or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For purposes of this market, a "ban on the export of diesel" means a prohibition on the exportation of diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil) from the United States, whether imposed on all exports or on substantially all exports. A restriction, quota, tariff, licensing requirement, destination-specific ban, or other limitation short of an export prohibition will not qualify unless it operates as a general prohibition on diesel exports. A prohibition may qualify whether it is temporary or permanent, provided the announcement clearly communicates a prohibition on diesel exports.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the U.S. government's present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a ban on the export of diesel.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a ban on the export of diesel. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a ban, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the ban by name, provided the substance of a prohibition on diesel exports is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
An announcement by the U.S. government that it accepts or agrees to an agreement, framework, or roadmap that includes a commitment to ban diesel exports qualifies only if (i) all parties whose acceptance is required for the agreement to take effect have accepted the agreement, or (ii) the announcement independently communicates the ban as a present and decided position of the United States, not contingent on acceptance by any other party.
The following do not qualify as official announcements:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the U.S. government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement such a ban;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of such a ban rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a ban on diesel exports is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the U.S. government or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Sep 21, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
音量
$55,164終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Sep 21, 2026, 6:10 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, the White House, a Cabinet member, an agency or department legally authorized to take such action, or an authorized representative thereof, publicly and officially announces a ban on the export of diesel from the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, a "ban on the export of diesel" means a prohibition on the exportation of diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil) from the United States, whether imposed on all exports or on substantially all exports. A restriction, quota, tariff, licensing requirement, destination-specific ban, or other limitation short of an export prohibition will not qualify unless it operates as a general prohibition on diesel exports. A prohibition may qualify whether it is temporary or permanent, provided the announcement clearly communicates a prohibition on diesel exports.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the U.S. government's present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a ban on the export of diesel.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a ban on the export of diesel. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a ban, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the ban by name, provided the substance of a prohibition on diesel exports is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
An announcement by the U.S. government that it accepts or agrees to an agreement, framework, or roadmap that includes a commitment to ban diesel exports qualifies only if (i) all parties whose acceptance is required for the agreement to take effect have accepted the agreement, or (ii) the announcement independently communicates the ban as a present and decided position of the United States, not contingent on acceptance by any other party.
The following do not qualify as official announcements:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the U.S. government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement such a ban;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of such a ban rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a ban on diesel exports is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the U.S. government or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Record-high diesel prices above $6.50 per gallon, driven by supply disruptions from the US-Iran conflict and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, have intensified pressure on the Trump administration ahead of November midterms. Low US distillate inventories and calls from farm-state Republicans for export restrictions to prioritize domestic supply prompted President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to signal openness to a temporary ban or quota. However, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and a White House statement rejected a flat prohibition, favoring voluntary industry cooperation instead, creating internal divisions. These mixed signals, combined with industry warnings of reduced refinery runs and higher gasoline or jet fuel prices, shape trader assessments of whether an official announcement occurs by late September or October.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, the White House, a Cabinet member, an agency or department legally authorized to take such action, or an authorized representative thereof, publicly and officially announces a ban on the export of diesel from the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, a "ban on the export of diesel" means a prohibition on the exportation of diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil) from the United States, whether imposed on all exports or on substantially all exports. A restriction, quota, tariff, licensing requirement, destination-specific ban, or other limitation short of an export prohibition will not qualify unless it operates as a general prohibition on diesel exports. A prohibition may qualify whether it is temporary or permanent, provided the announcement clearly communicates a prohibition on diesel exports.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the U.S. government's present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a ban on the export of diesel.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a ban on the export of diesel. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a ban, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the ban by name, provided the substance of a prohibition on diesel exports is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
An announcement by the U.S. government that it accepts or agrees to an agreement, framework, or roadmap that includes a commitment to ban diesel exports qualifies only if (i) all parties whose acceptance is required for the agreement to take effect have accepted the agreement, or (ii) the announcement independently communicates the ban as a present and decided position of the United States, not contingent on acceptance by any other party.
The following do not qualify as official announcements:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the U.S. government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement such a ban;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of such a ban rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a ban on diesel exports is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the U.S. government or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For purposes of this market, a "ban on the export of diesel" means a prohibition on the exportation of diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil) from the United States, whether imposed on all exports or on substantially all exports. A restriction, quota, tariff, licensing requirement, destination-specific ban, or other limitation short of an export prohibition will not qualify unless it operates as a general prohibition on diesel exports. A prohibition may qualify whether it is temporary or permanent, provided the announcement clearly communicates a prohibition on diesel exports.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the U.S. government's present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a ban on the export of diesel.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a ban on the export of diesel. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a ban, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the ban by name, provided the substance of a prohibition on diesel exports is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
An announcement by the U.S. government that it accepts or agrees to an agreement, framework, or roadmap that includes a commitment to ban diesel exports qualifies only if (i) all parties whose acceptance is required for the agreement to take effect have accepted the agreement, or (ii) the announcement independently communicates the ban as a present and decided position of the United States, not contingent on acceptance by any other party.
The following do not qualify as official announcements:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the U.S. government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement such a ban;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of such a ban rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a ban on diesel exports is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the U.S. government or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$55,164終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Sep 21, 2026, 6:10 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070be91...Record-high diesel prices above $6.50 per gallon, driven by supply disruptions from the US-Iran conflict and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, have intensified pressure on the Trump administration ahead of November midterms. Low US distillate inventories and calls from farm-state Republicans for export restrictions to prioritize domestic supply prompted President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to signal openness to a temporary ban or quota. However, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and a White House statement rejected a flat prohibition, favoring voluntary industry cooperation instead, creating internal divisions. These mixed signals, combined with industry warnings of reduced refinery runs and higher gasoline or jet fuel prices, shape trader assessments of whether an official announcement occurs by late September or October.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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