Broad consensus among major forecasters, including the IMF projecting 2.4% US GDP growth for 2026 alongside private bank estimates near 2.0-2.2%, underpins the 98% market-implied probability against negative annual growth. Resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital investment, and a labor market with unemployment near 4.3-4.5% have sustained expansion above potential despite energy price pressures and tariff effects. Recent data revisions and FOMC projections reinforce this baseline, with markets pricing probabilities rather than certainties amid ongoing monetary policy normalization. Tail risks include escalation in Middle East conflicts sharply raising inflation and forcing aggressive rate hikes that could tip the economy into contraction.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
2% 確率
$33,280 Vol.
$33,280 Vol.
2027/01/28
はい
2% 確率
$33,280 Vol.
$33,280 Vol.
2027/01/28
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Broad consensus among major forecasters, including the IMF projecting 2.4% US GDP growth for 2026 alongside private bank estimates near 2.0-2.2%, underpins the 98% market-implied probability against negative annual growth. Resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital investment, and a labor market with unemployment near 4.3-4.5% have sustained expansion above potential despite energy price pressures and tariff effects. Recent data revisions and FOMC projections reinforce this baseline, with markets pricing probabilities rather than certainties amid ongoing monetary policy normalization. Tail risks include escalation in Middle East conflicts sharply raising inflation and forcing aggressive rate hikes that could tip the economy into contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
音量
$33,280終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Broad consensus among major forecasters, including the IMF projecting 2.4% US GDP growth for 2026 alongside private bank estimates near 2.0-2.2%, underpins the 98% market-implied probability against negative annual growth. Resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital investment, and a labor market with unemployment near 4.3-4.5% have sustained expansion above potential despite energy price pressures and tariff effects. Recent data revisions and FOMC projections reinforce this baseline, with markets pricing probabilities rather than certainties amid ongoing monetary policy normalization. Tail risks include escalation in Middle East conflicts sharply raising inflation and forcing aggressive rate hikes that could tip the economy into contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
音量
$33,280終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Broad consensus among major forecasters, including the IMF projecting 2.4% US GDP growth for 2026 alongside private bank estimates near 2.0-2.2%, underpins the 98% market-implied probability against negative annual growth. Resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital investment, and a labor market with unemployment near 4.3-4.5% have sustained expansion above potential despite energy price pressures and tariff effects. Recent data revisions and FOMC projections reinforce this baseline, with markets pricing probabilities rather than certainties amid ongoing monetary policy normalization. Tail risks include escalation in Middle East conflicts sharply raising inflation and forcing aggressive rate hikes that could tip the economy into contraction.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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