The extreme rarity of four-home run games in MLB history underpins the 60.2% implied probability on "No" for 2026. Only 21 such performances have occurred league-wide across more than a century, with the most recent by Kyle Schwarber in August 2025; 2026 has seen none through late September despite elevated league-wide power numbers. Key factors include the narrow window of remaining regular-season games, absence of sustained hot streaks from elite power hitters in favorable matchups or ballparks, and the statistical improbability of one player reaching four long balls against quality pitching in a single contest. Recent form shows multiple three-homer games but no escalation to four, aligning trader consensus with the feat's historical scarcity and situational barriers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日40% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/11
40% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/11
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The extreme rarity of four-home run games in MLB history underpins the 60.2% implied probability on "No" for 2026. Only 21 such performances have occurred league-wide across more than a century, with the most recent by Kyle Schwarber in August 2025; 2026 has seen none through late September despite elevated league-wide power numbers. Key factors include the narrow window of remaining regular-season games, absence of sustained hot streaks from elite power hitters in favorable matchups or ballparks, and the statistical improbability of one player reaching four long balls against quality pitching in a single contest. Recent form shows multiple three-homer games but no escalation to four, aligning trader consensus with the feat's historical scarcity and situational barriers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 28, 2026, 7:03 PM ET
音量
$7,348終了日
2026/10/12マーケット開始日
Apr 28, 2026, 7:03 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The extreme rarity of four-home run games in MLB history underpins the 60.2% implied probability on "No" for 2026. Only 21 such performances have occurred league-wide across more than a century, with the most recent by Kyle Schwarber in August 2025; 2026 has seen none through late September despite elevated league-wide power numbers. Key factors include the narrow window of remaining regular-season games, absence of sustained hot streaks from elite power hitters in favorable matchups or ballparks, and the statistical improbability of one player reaching four long balls against quality pitching in a single contest. Recent form shows multiple three-homer games but no escalation to four, aligning trader consensus with the feat's historical scarcity and situational barriers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$7,348終了日
2026/10/12マーケット開始日
Apr 28, 2026, 7:03 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The extreme rarity of four-home run games in MLB history underpins the 60.2% implied probability on "No" for 2026. Only 21 such performances have occurred league-wide across more than a century, with the most recent by Kyle Schwarber in August 2025; 2026 has seen none through late September despite elevated league-wide power numbers. Key factors include the narrow window of remaining regular-season games, absence of sustained hot streaks from elite power hitters in favorable matchups or ballparks, and the statistical improbability of one player reaching four long balls against quality pitching in a single contest. Recent form shows multiple three-homer games but no escalation to four, aligning trader consensus with the feat's historical scarcity and situational barriers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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