Kimi Antonelli enters the Baku City Circuit as the clear market leader after consecutive victories at Monza and Madrid that extended his drivers’ championship advantage to 81 points over teammate George Russell. Mercedes’ strong overall package, combined with Antonelli’s recent qualifying and race pace on varied layouts, underpins trader consensus around his 40.5% implied probability. The street circuit’s long main straight, heavy braking zones, and history of safety cars introduce volatility that tempers expectations, yet his momentum and reliability edge stand out. Lando Norris sits second in pricing on McLaren’s consistent upgrades and straight-line speed, while Russell, Verstappen, and Hamilton trail further back amid tighter intra-team battles and less dominant recent results. Eight rounds remain, but Baku’s layout rewards clean execution over raw aggression.