Recent polling ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election shows Die Linke consistently ahead of the AfD, with the former at 21–23 percent and the latter at 17–18 percent across surveys from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and INSA in early September. This gap has held steady in the final weeks, reflecting Linke gains from its 2023 result alongside AfD doubling its prior share without overtaking the leader. The AfD’s candidate Kristin Brinker has expressed optimism for strong performance, yet no major recent events have shifted the relative positioning between the two parties. Traders appear to weigh these stable polling differentials when assessing the probability that Linke receives more votes than the AfD.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日リンクェ
86% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/20
リンクェ
86% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/20
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election shows Die Linke consistently ahead of the AfD, with the former at 21–23 percent and the latter at 17–18 percent across surveys from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and INSA in early September. This gap has held steady in the final weeks, reflecting Linke gains from its 2023 result alongside AfD doubling its prior share without overtaking the leader. The AfD’s candidate Kristin Brinker has expressed optimism for strong performance, yet no major recent events have shifted the relative positioning between the two parties. Traders appear to weigh these stable polling differentials when assessing the probability that Linke receives more votes than the AfD.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
マーケット開始日： Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ET
音量
$523終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election shows Die Linke consistently ahead of the AfD, with the former at 21–23 percent and the latter at 17–18 percent across surveys from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and INSA in early September. This gap has held steady in the final weeks, reflecting Linke gains from its 2023 result alongside AfD doubling its prior share without overtaking the leader. The AfD’s candidate Kristin Brinker has expressed optimism for strong performance, yet no major recent events have shifted the relative positioning between the two parties. Traders appear to weigh these stable polling differentials when assessing the probability that Linke receives more votes than the AfD.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
音量
$523終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent polling ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election shows Die Linke consistently ahead of the AfD, with the former at 21–23 percent and the latter at 17–18 percent across surveys from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and INSA in early September. This gap has held steady in the final weeks, reflecting Linke gains from its 2023 result alongside AfD doubling its prior share without overtaking the leader. The AfD’s candidate Kristin Brinker has expressed optimism for strong performance, yet no major recent events have shifted the relative positioning between the two parties. Traders appear to weigh these stable polling differentials when assessing the probability that Linke receives more votes than the AfD.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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