Die Linke’s strong pre-election polling trajectory, with multiple September surveys placing the party at 21-23% and often ahead of the CDU, combined with its historic gains from the 2023 result of 12.2%, drove near-certain trader consensus on a vote share above 23%. Key catalysts included voter focus on housing affordability in Berlin, the appeal of lead candidate Elif Eralp, and dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition. Exit polls and initial counts on election day September 20 confirmed results around 25%, locking in the market’s 99.4% pricing for the 23%+ band. Late shifts in turnout among younger or eastern district voters, or unusually large discrepancies between preliminary and final certified tallies, represent the narrowest remaining paths that could still alter the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日23％以上 99.4%
20～23％ <1%
17〜20％ <1%
17％未満 <1%
$95,309 Vol.
$95,309 Vol.
2026/09/20
17％未満
<1%
17〜20％
<1%
20～23％
<1%
23％以上
99%
23％以上 99.4%
20～23％ <1%
17〜20％ <1%
17％未満 <1%
$95,309 Vol.
$95,309 Vol.
2026/09/20
17％未満
$16,605 Vol.
<1%
17〜20％
$23,203 Vol.
<1%
20～23％
$22,048 Vol.
<1%
23％以上
$33,453 Vol.
99%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Linke in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Die Linke’s strong pre-election polling trajectory, with multiple September surveys placing the party at 21-23% and often ahead of the CDU, combined with its historic gains from the 2023 result of 12.2%, drove near-certain trader consensus on a vote share above 23%. Key catalysts included voter focus on housing affordability in Berlin, the appeal of lead candidate Elif Eralp, and dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition. Exit polls and initial counts on election day September 20 confirmed results around 25%, locking in the market’s 99.4% pricing for the 23%+ band. Late shifts in turnout among younger or eastern district voters, or unusually large discrepancies between preliminary and final certified tallies, represent the narrowest remaining paths that could still alter the outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Linke in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Linke in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
マーケット開始日： Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
音量
$95,309終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Linke in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Die Linke’s strong pre-election polling trajectory, with multiple September surveys placing the party at 21-23% and often ahead of the CDU, combined with its historic gains from the 2023 result of 12.2%, drove near-certain trader consensus on a vote share above 23%. Key catalysts included voter focus on housing affordability in Berlin, the appeal of lead candidate Elif Eralp, and dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition. Exit polls and initial counts on election day September 20 confirmed results around 25%, locking in the market’s 99.4% pricing for the 23%+ band. Late shifts in turnout among younger or eastern district voters, or unusually large discrepancies between preliminary and final certified tallies, represent the narrowest remaining paths that could still alter the outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Linke in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Linke in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
音量
$95,309終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Die Linke’s strong pre-election polling trajectory, with multiple September surveys placing the party at 21-23% and often ahead of the CDU, combined with its historic gains from the 2023 result of 12.2%, drove near-certain trader consensus on a vote share above 23%. Key catalysts included voter focus on housing affordability in Berlin, the appeal of lead candidate Elif Eralp, and dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition. Exit polls and initial counts on election day September 20 confirmed results around 25%, locking in the market’s 99.4% pricing for the 23%+ band. Late shifts in turnout among younger or eastern district voters, or unusually large discrepancies between preliminary and final certified tallies, represent the narrowest remaining paths that could still alter the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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