Recent USDA Agriculture in Drought data show roughly 23% of U.S. hogs located in moderate or worse drought (D1+) as of late September, consistent with the market's leading 15–24% bin. Concentrated production in Iowa, Minnesota, and North Carolina overlaps with mixed conditions—dry weather dominating the Midwest and Delta while remnants of Hurricane Polo and earlier rains eased stress in parts of the southern Plains and Southeast. National drought coverage holds near 50%, with intensification noted in Texas/Oklahoma but improvement elsewhere; the next weekly U.S. Drought Monitor and associated livestock percentages will provide the key update for the October 6 resolution period. Historical analogs and current model consensus support limited near-term shifts absent major precipitation changes.
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