Persistent US-Iran tensions rooted in nuclear disputes, sanctions enforcement, proxy conflicts across the Middle East, and the absence of formal diplomatic ties since 1980 underpin trader expectations that an embassy reopening will not occur in 2026. Congressional oversight requirements, executive branch priorities on regional security, and historical patterns of stalled talks reinforce this consensus reflected in current market pricing. Late-year developments such as verified progress in multilateral nuclear negotiations, a major de-escalation agreement, or shifts in Iranian leadership could still alter timelines, though such outcomes remain subject to rapid change and verification challenges.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoGli Stati Uniti riapriranno la loro ambasciata in Iran nel 2026?
Gli Stati Uniti riapriranno la loro ambasciata in Iran nel 2026?
Sì
5% probabilità
$159,500 Vol.
$159,500 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
5% probabilità
$159,500 Vol.
$159,500 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent US-Iran tensions rooted in nuclear disputes, sanctions enforcement, proxy conflicts across the Middle East, and the absence of formal diplomatic ties since 1980 underpin trader expectations that an embassy reopening will not occur in 2026. Congressional oversight requirements, executive branch priorities on regional security, and historical patterns of stalled talks reinforce this consensus reflected in current market pricing. Late-year developments such as verified progress in multilateral nuclear negotiations, a major de-escalation agreement, or shifts in Iranian leadership could still alter timelines, though such outcomes remain subject to rapid change and verification challenges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
Volume
$159,500Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent US-Iran tensions rooted in nuclear disputes, sanctions enforcement, proxy conflicts across the Middle East, and the absence of formal diplomatic ties since 1980 underpin trader expectations that an embassy reopening will not occur in 2026. Congressional oversight requirements, executive branch priorities on regional security, and historical patterns of stalled talks reinforce this consensus reflected in current market pricing. Late-year developments such as verified progress in multilateral nuclear negotiations, a major de-escalation agreement, or shifts in Iranian leadership could still alter timelines, though such outcomes remain subject to rapid change and verification challenges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$159,500Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Persistent US-Iran tensions rooted in nuclear disputes, sanctions enforcement, proxy conflicts across the Middle East, and the absence of formal diplomatic ties since 1980 underpin trader expectations that an embassy reopening will not occur in 2026. Congressional oversight requirements, executive branch priorities on regional security, and historical patterns of stalled talks reinforce this consensus reflected in current market pricing. Late-year developments such as verified progress in multilateral nuclear negotiations, a major de-escalation agreement, or shifts in Iranian leadership could still alter timelines, though such outcomes remain subject to rapid change and verification challenges.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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