The near-certain trader consensus against a U.S. takeover of the Panama Canal before 2027 stems from sustained diplomatic and legal efforts that have addressed concerns over foreign influence without altering Panamanian sovereignty or operational control. The second Trump administration has secured expanded security cooperation via a 2025 memorandum allowing temporary U.S. deployments, backed a January 2026 Panamanian Supreme Court ruling annulling port concessions held by a Hong Kong-based operator, and supported subsequent transfers to non-Chinese firms such as Maersk affiliates. These steps, alongside joint military exercises and neutrality treaty frameworks, have reduced perceived Chinese leverage at key terminals while Panama retains authority under the 1977 Torrijos-Carter accords. With roughly three months remaining, no verified military preparations or legislative moves toward direct U.S. administration have emerged. Late developments that could still shift odds include an abrupt escalation tied to broader U.S.-China tensions or an unforeseen neutrality violation triggering treaty intervention rights.