**Four-home-run games remain exceptionally rare in MLB, occurring just 21 times in league history through the 2025 season, with the most recent on August 28, 2025 (Kyle Schwarber).** This scarcity—roughly once every 16,000+ games on average, rarer than perfect games or cycles—stems from the need for a power hitter to combine elite contact, launch angle, and barrel rate across four (or more) plate appearances, often requiring a high-scoring team outburst for extra opportunities. Gaps between instances frequently span multiple seasons or years, though 2025 produced an outlier cluster of three (Eugenio Suárez, Nick Kurtz, and Schwarber). As of late September 2026, none have occurred in the current season despite the presence of prolific sluggers and varying park and matchup conditions. The feat's dependence on precise sequencing of at-bats, opposing pitching, defensive positioning, and ball flight makes it highly situational and unpredictable, supporting trader consensus that it is more likely to be absent for the full 2026 campaign. Historical patterns and the absence of recent examples reinforce the implied probability favoring no such performance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato40% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
11 ott 2026
40% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
11 ott 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Four-home-run games remain exceptionally rare in MLB, occurring just 21 times in league history through the 2025 season, with the most recent on August 28, 2025 (Kyle Schwarber).**
This scarcity—roughly once every 16,000+ games on average, rarer than perfect games or cycles—stems from the need for a power hitter to combine elite contact, launch angle, and barrel rate across four (or more) plate appearances, often requiring a high-scoring team outburst for extra opportunities. Gaps between instances frequently span multiple seasons or years, though 2025 produced an outlier cluster of three (Eugenio Suárez, Nick Kurtz, and Schwarber).
As of late September 2026, none have occurred in the current season despite the presence of prolific sluggers and varying park and matchup conditions. The feat's dependence on precise sequencing of at-bats, opposing pitching, defensive positioning, and ball flight makes it highly situational and unpredictable, supporting trader consensus that it is more likely to be absent for the full 2026 campaign. Historical patterns and the absence of recent examples reinforce the implied probability favoring no such performance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 28, 2026, 7:03 PM ET
Volume
$7,348Data di fine
12 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 28, 2026, 7:03 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Four-home-run games remain exceptionally rare in MLB, occurring just 21 times in league history through the 2025 season, with the most recent on August 28, 2025 (Kyle Schwarber).**
This scarcity—roughly once every 16,000+ games on average, rarer than perfect games or cycles—stems from the need for a power hitter to combine elite contact, launch angle, and barrel rate across four (or more) plate appearances, often requiring a high-scoring team outburst for extra opportunities. Gaps between instances frequently span multiple seasons or years, though 2025 produced an outlier cluster of three (Eugenio Suárez, Nick Kurtz, and Schwarber).
As of late September 2026, none have occurred in the current season despite the presence of prolific sluggers and varying park and matchup conditions. The feat's dependence on precise sequencing of at-bats, opposing pitching, defensive positioning, and ball flight makes it highly situational and unpredictable, supporting trader consensus that it is more likely to be absent for the full 2026 campaign. Historical patterns and the absence of recent examples reinforce the implied probability favoring no such performance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Data di fine
12 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 28, 2026, 7:03 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070be91...**Four-home-run games remain exceptionally rare in MLB, occurring just 21 times in league history through the 2025 season, with the most recent on August 28, 2025 (Kyle Schwarber).** This scarcity—roughly once every 16,000+ games on average, rarer than perfect games or cycles—stems from the need for a power hitter to combine elite contact, launch angle, and barrel rate across four (or more) plate appearances, often requiring a high-scoring team outburst for extra opportunities. Gaps between instances frequently span multiple seasons or years, though 2025 produced an outlier cluster of three (Eugenio Suárez, Nick Kurtz, and Schwarber). As of late September 2026, none have occurred in the current season despite the presence of prolific sluggers and varying park and matchup conditions. The feat's dependence on precise sequencing of at-bats, opposing pitching, defensive positioning, and ball flight makes it highly situational and unpredictable, supporting trader consensus that it is more likely to be absent for the full 2026 campaign. Historical patterns and the absence of recent examples reinforce the implied probability favoring no such performance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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