**No holds a 61% market-implied probability because the market resolves Yes only if Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce marry, Tom Holland and Zendaya marry, and Timothée Chalamet and Kylie Jenner get engaged—all by December 31, 2026.** Swift and Kelce already tied the knot in a star-studded July 3 ceremony at Madison Square Garden, while Holland confirmed he and Zendaya married in a private earlier ceremony, with a subsequent celebration in August. That leaves the Chalamet-Jenner engagement as the decisive barrier. The couple, dating since 2023, has shown no signs of rushing toward that step; recent reporting indicates they remain content in their current dynamic and are prioritizing privacy over near-term milestones. With limited time left and no precursor signals of an imminent proposal, traders view the full trifecta as unlikely, anchoring the No side. Any surprise announcement from Chalamet and Jenner before year-end remains the primary swing factor.