Recent military strikes by Israel and the United States in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving much of its centrifuge infrastructure inoperable and its stockpile of roughly 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium buried under rubble with limited IAEA access for verification. Assessments indicate no active large-scale enrichment or structured weaponization efforts, with the program largely dormant amid ongoing diplomatic negotiations over inspections and potential down-blending. With only months remaining until the December 31, 2026, resolution date, these constraints underpin trader consensus reflected in the 95.2% implied probability for "No." Realistic shifts could arise from undetected extraction of highly enriched material, accelerated clandestine recovery at sites like Pickaxe Mountain, or rapid further enrichment and assembly if barriers are overcome faster than expected.