Recent IAEA referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards noncompliance, alongside confirmed construction activity at the fortified Pickaxe Mountain site near Natanz, highlights persistent verification gaps following 2025–2026 strikes that damaged enrichment facilities and buried much of the 60% enriched uranium stockpile. Iran has not resumed declared enrichment, inspectors lack access to key sites, and the material remains largely inaccessible under rubble, creating substantial technical and monitoring hurdles to weapons-grade production or assembly. Trader consensus at 94% against acquisition before 2027 reflects these structural constraints and diplomatic escalation, though shifts could occur if Iran achieves undetected recovery or accelerated covert work amid unresolved talks.