Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently tops public HLE leaderboards at 65 percent as of mid-September 2026, narrowly ahead of Opus 5 and Mythos 5 variants, while Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 sits near 62 percent and OpenAI’s latest GPT-5.4 Pro configurations trail around 58–59 percent. Rapid iteration on reasoning scaffolds, chain-of-thought prompting, and selective tool use has driven scores from the mid-40s earlier in the year to the mid-60s in just months, outpacing initial projections for the 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark. With three months remaining until year-end resolution, further model releases, ensemble methods, or expanded agentic capabilities from the leading labs represent the clearest catalysts that could push the frontier higher or stall short of key thresholds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl punteggio più alto all'ultimo esame dell'umanità nel 2026?
Il punteggio più alto all'ultimo esame dell'umanità nel 2026?
$74,033 Vol.
31 dic 2026
60%+
44%
65%+
29%
70%+
15%
75%+
13%
80%+
7%
90%+
5%
$74,033 Vol.
60%+
$43,064 Vol.
44%
65%+
$16,633 Vol.
29%
70%+
$6,485 Vol.
15%
75%+
$3,674 Vol.
13%
80%+
$1,710 Vol.
7%
90%+
$2,465 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently tops public HLE leaderboards at 65 percent as of mid-September 2026, narrowly ahead of Opus 5 and Mythos 5 variants, while Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 sits near 62 percent and OpenAI’s latest GPT-5.4 Pro configurations trail around 58–59 percent. Rapid iteration on reasoning scaffolds, chain-of-thought prompting, and selective tool use has driven scores from the mid-40s earlier in the year to the mid-60s in just months, outpacing initial projections for the 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark. With three months remaining until year-end resolution, further model releases, ensemble methods, or expanded agentic capabilities from the leading labs represent the clearest catalysts that could push the frontier higher or stall short of key thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercato aperto: Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$74,033Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://agi.safe.ai/Risolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently tops public HLE leaderboards at 65 percent as of mid-September 2026, narrowly ahead of Opus 5 and Mythos 5 variants, while Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 sits near 62 percent and OpenAI’s latest GPT-5.4 Pro configurations trail around 58–59 percent. Rapid iteration on reasoning scaffolds, chain-of-thought prompting, and selective tool use has driven scores from the mid-40s earlier in the year to the mid-60s in just months, outpacing initial projections for the 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark. With three months remaining until year-end resolution, further model releases, ensemble methods, or expanded agentic capabilities from the leading labs represent the clearest catalysts that could push the frontier higher or stall short of key thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$74,033Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://agi.safe.ai/Risolutore
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently tops public HLE leaderboards at 65 percent as of mid-September 2026, narrowly ahead of Opus 5 and Mythos 5 variants, while Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 sits near 62 percent and OpenAI’s latest GPT-5.4 Pro configurations trail around 58–59 percent. Rapid iteration on reasoning scaffolds, chain-of-thought prompting, and selective tool use has driven scores from the mid-40s earlier in the year to the mid-60s in just months, outpacing initial projections for the 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark. With three months remaining until year-end resolution, further model releases, ensemble methods, or expanded agentic capabilities from the leading labs represent the clearest catalysts that could push the frontier higher or stall short of key thresholds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Il punteggio più alto raggiunto da un modello OpenAI nell'Ultimo Esame dell'Umanità nel 2026 sarà pari o superiore al 55%?
78%
Sì
Il punteggio più alto raggiunto da un modello Meta all’Humanity’s Last Exam nel 2026 sarà del 55% o superiore?
25%
Sì
Il punteggio più alto ottenuto da un modello Anthropic Claude all’Humanity’s Last Exam nel 2026 sarà pari o superiore al 55%?
86%
Sì
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